Tanzania
Introduction
I recently came
across a
site
providing measurement
(from the 1990s)
of various indicators of the quality of governance of nations. The project – an
offshoot of the World Bank – is fascinating, and I’ve decided to see what I can
do with it.
The easy and obvious
approach would probably be to look at the data and, in effect, use it to
confirm what is already well known (i.e.,
certain nations have more stability than others). However, that is not
adding anything new.
What I have decided
to do is to go through the data and see if I can use that to determine what
nations are at risk of a deterioration which possibly could be arrested or
minimised.
There are a few
nations I have some concerns over – for instance, Bangladesh, which has been
placed under enormous strain by the influx of Rohingya fleeing the genocide in
burma. The most recent data, however, are from 2016, so that won’t show up. Two
nations which are also on my mind are
Uganda,
which is experiencing pressure from refugees and neochristian zealots, and
Tanzania, which had a
very
promising President elected recently, but seems to be experiencing some backsliding.
For this first
self-set assignment, I’ll work on
Tanzania,
which – to an outsider like myself – has no obvious reason for problems,
whereas Uganda is still in the three generation transition from the despot
Amin
to democracy
(which Tanzania was the only
nation brave/ethical/motivated enough to cause, through its military action to remove the tyrant who, in eight years of human rights abuses and
incompetence had managed to kill possibly as many as half a million people).
Tanzania - The Governance Data
Using data from 2006
and 2010 to 2016 (inclusive), and
comparing Tanzania’s data to the aggregated data for “sub-Saharan Africa”, the
following is indicated:
Voice and Accountability
(capturing
perceptions of the extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate
in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, freedom of
association, and a free media)
Tanzania is consistently above the rest of
sub-Saharan Africa, but with a peak percentile (aka “comparative rating”) of 44th in 2011 and slow
decline since then to a 38th percentile in 2015 and 40th percentile
in 2016.
Political Stability and Absence of Violence
(capturing
perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or
politically-motivated violence, including terrorism)
This set of data is less clearly favouring
Tanzania. Over the period 2010 to 2012, Tanzania’s percentile is consistent,
and above the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, but outside that, it is more
variable. In 2016, Tanzania had a 30th percentile, compared to 32nd
for sub-Saharan Africa.
It should also be noted that
sub-Saharan Africa declined from 36th to 23rd over this
period.
Government Effectiveness
(capturing
perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service
and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of
policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government's
commitment to such policies)
The last four criteria are of
particular interest to me.
On governmental effectiveness, while the mas
aggregate of sub-Saharan African nations has been fairly stable on this aspect
(percentile 27th or 26th), Tanzania declined from 40th
in 2006 to 26th in 2014, after which it recovered to 34th.
I would expect a new, good President to be able to help cause something like
this, but then we get to regulatory quality.
Regulatory Quality
(capturing
perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound
policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development)
Tanzania has been consistently above the
rest of sub-Saharan Africa on this (although still in the lower half of the
worldwide range), but with a decline from 2014 to 2016 of 41st to 36th,
over which period sub-Saharan Africa declined from 30th to 28th.
Rule of Law
(capturing
perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the
rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement,
property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime
and violence)
This aspect also shows a decline over the
period 2006 to 2011, then a rise until 2015, declining to 38th
percentile (still above the relatively
constant 30th to 31st percentiles for sub-Saharan Africa,
and below the world median).
Control of Corruption
(capturing perceptions of the extent to
which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and
grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by
elites and private interests)
I will shortly be seeing what the advocacy
groups have to say, if anything, about this. As far as the data from this site
goes, there was a marked decline from 49th percentile in 2006 to 23rd
in 2013 (below the 30th to 32nd
range for sub-Saharan Africa over 2006 -2016), after which there was a
steady recovery to 35th in 2016.
So . . . what
happened? Why have these patterns been apparent?
I’ll look at some
other information before I try to make sense of all this, but I also want to
note that having a high or low percentile is a relative matter: it doesn’t
mean, in an absolute sense, that something is either adequate or inadequate –
that requires a whole other set of detailed investigations and analyses that
I’m not in a position to do.
Tanzania - Other Information
My
sources for additional information are:
Key relevant
information from these additional sources is summarised as follows (and would be better summarised had I more
time – ah, roll on retirement :) ):
- Tanzania is largely stable, with a reasonably
good history on ethics (including
interventions in neighbours, and a position of “elder statesperson” for many of
its key former figures) - see here,
here,
here,
here, here, and here;
(These are all secondary sources, as I
don’t have the time [or money] to personally track down primary sources, but I
am comfortable with this statement owing to range of sources stating this)
- although stable, Tanzania has a number of
political issues, including: a delayed
transition to a weakly pluralistic democracy (see here, here, and here) with questions over aspects of the electoral process (particularly on Zanzibar – see here), continuing restraint of political opposition
(see, for instance, here, here, here, here, here), suppression of media (see, for instance, here, here, here and here), and corruption (see, for instance, here, here [which quadrupled revenue], and here)
which, combined with poor service delivery, has “hampered efforts to curb widespread poverty and reduce widespread
reliance on subsistence agriculture” (see here, ).
The FAS 2011 overview included the following:
“Although the Tanzanian government is not
reported to be responsible for any politically motivated killings or
disappearances in the past year, there have been several instances of unlawful
killings by policemen and prison guards. Police and prison wardens are also
accused of torturing and threatening suspected criminals. The police force
lacks funding and is plagued by corruption and the excessive use of force.
According to the State Department 2010 Country Reports on Human Rights
Practices:
Principal human rights problems in both Tanzania and Zanzibar included the
following: use of excessive force by military personnel, police, and prison
guards, as well as societal violence, which resulted in deaths and injuries;
abuses by Sungusungo traditional citizens’ anticrime units; harsh and
life-threatening prison conditions; lengthy pre-trial detention; judicial
corruption and inefficiency, particularly in the lower courts; restrictions on
freedoms of press and assembly; restrictions on the movement of refugees;
official corruption and impunity; societal violence against women and persons
with albinism; child abuse, including female genital mutilation (FGM); and
discrimination based on sexual orientation. Trafficking in persons and child
labour remained problems.”
The 2017 FAS assessment
also included a comment about “impunity
in police and security forces, who
sometimes act outside of civilian control” [emphasis added].
- the
current President has a reputation for honesty, but is behaving in an
authoritarian manner (he makes decisions
without consultation, is notably authoritarian on freedom of expression [Tanzania
has “grown rapidly following the advent of the multi-party era in the
mid-1990s”, but “threats and attacks against journalists hinder critical
reporting, according to US-based Freedom House”, and laws push media to
self-censor – see here],
has question why judges have been cleared of corruption [which could be
corruption, or that they were innocent], and foreign workers have had their
passports seized – see here)
- what I would term the “Big
Man” problem (although “strongman”
seems to be the more applicable term used by others), which goes back to
the personality cult which built up around the nation’s first President,
someone who was not good for the economy initially, but whose ethics unified an
ethnically and religiously diverse population (see here and here).
Politically, Tanzania is ranked as “partly
free”, which shows progress since the 70s and 80s;
- the current President was elected on a
platform of addressing corruption. Although he has taken some action, as stated
above, corruption remains a problem, and Transparency
International’s
Corruption
Perception Index for
2017 fives Tanzania a score of 36 out of 100, and a ranking of 103rd
out of 180;
- further to the political and human rights problems
listed above, Tanzania has a number of other serious human rights problems, but
the nation has, unlike some other African nations, committed to staying
in the International Criminal Court (ICC):
“Many of the countries that have spoken
against withdrawal see the Court as an extension of their commitment to greater
accountability for gross violations of human rights and international crimes”;
- other human
rights problems in Tanzania include:
gender-based discrimination, which Tanzania was encouraged to continue
its efforts at “discouraging traditions
affecting gender equality” (see also here, here, here), horrendous
persecution of people with albinism (see
also here), discrimination against
minorities (see here,
for instance), rampant homophobia
and transphobia (see also here, ), and a range of other
issues – see here;
The 2011 UN Human Rights Council’s periodic
review on Tanzania made 96 recommendations which were supported by
Tanzania, 53 recommendations which were to be examined by Tanzania by 2012, and
4 recommendations (on sexual orientation
and “practices and stereotypes that discriminate [against] women) that were rejected. Tanzania can
only be considered as homophobic,
and probably also transphobic – and LGBT discrimination is a bellwether for
discrimination generally which, combined with the appalling abuses of people
with albinism, indicates a culture that is broadly stuck in superstition. Apart
from the inherent problems of that alone, it shows a society that is vulnerable
to the Big Man delusion;
- hundreds of thousands of refugees have fled
to Tanzania (see here)
from Burundi as a result of the crisis in the latter, and is causing problems
in the former, as evidenced by this
nonsensical call for Burundian refugees to return home;
- some violent extremism, including returning
extremists, threats to tourism (also
under threat by the impact of poachers), unrest in Zanzibar (see here,
here,
- ongoing poverty (25th poorest nation by GDP – see here, here,
and here)
and economic problems (see here, ),
including a resource mining dispute
(more resources [gas reserves] have been
discovered). This is possibly not helped by having a population with a very
high proportion of very young people (see
here).
Urbanisation is still low (around one
third), but increasing, and there is a net emigration, suggesting dissatisfaction
with life in Tanzania (see here);
- other
issues including transhipment
of drugs, and a range of health problems including HIV/AIDS, limited
numbers of doctors, malnourishment, limited sanitation and unsafe drinking
water (see here), indoor pollution from cooking fires (being addressed by electrification - see here
and here),
lack of pain relief (e.g., see here),
tuberculosis (with a novel detection
method – see here),
mosquito
borne disease.
Although they miss
the crucial human rights issues, I will end this section with the following
(slightly edited) summary from the
2017 FAS document and a key
passage from an
article
on democratic transitions by the African Centre for Strategic Studies:
“Tanzania is likely to remain a generally stable but poor developing
country for the foreseeable future. Increasing multiparty competition may
contribute to gradual growth in demand for political change, democratic
accountability, improved governance, and greater political pluralism—but
potentially also to increased political tension. Growing access to information,
notably via mobile phones, may spur similar trends by increasing exposure to
information on current events, and global social and governance norms. . . . (Thomson
Reuters Foundation/Kizito Makoye, “Mobile phones a boon for Tanzanian women in
business, banking: researchers,” 5th October, 2015, and “Tanzania
rolls out birth registrations by mobile phone,” 13th October, 2015)
Such changes, along with continuing infusions of foreign assistance . . . and
gradually improving public infrastructure and government services, are likely
to spur increasing economic activity, production, and trade, thus improving
quality of life for the Tanzanian people.”
and
“in Tanzania, it is still at times difficult to distinguish between the
party, government, and military. However, commitment to separating them exists,
and citizens are increasingly confident that the army is insulated against
factional fights in CCM. Ghana, the foremost icon of African struggle politics, is now an emerging
democracy after a tumultuous experience with military and autocratic rule. Like
Somaliland, power there alternates between ruling and opposition parties.
Tanzania, another African icon of liberation, albeit through a non-violent
liberation movement like Ghana’s, thrives on a culture of peaceful power
transfers and competition. Unlike Ghana, power remains within CCM. However, the
Tanzanian political process—problems notwithstanding—allows space for
opposition to challenge CCM policies.”
Tanzania – Conclusions
My conclusions – and these
may be wrong - are:
- Tanzania has a major problem with
corruption. The current President is good on this issue, but he is undoing all
his hard work by wanting to be a strongman or possibly even a Big Man;
- The President’s authoritarian problem is symptomatic
of, and contributing to that nation’s discomfort with difference – a discomfort
which manifests in abuse of power (including political oppression and abuses by
police and security forces) and savage, at times superstitious discrimination. All
Tanzanians need to be comfortable with difference and disagreement over ideas –
to be able to “agree to disagree”, as a way to stamp out discrimination and
abuse of power as well as fix governance problems;
- Tanzania needs to learn how to capitalise on
its natural resources and feed the income into education, especially of girls;
- Tanzania, a nation which has shown itself to
be courageous and big-hearted, is experiencing a major impact from refugees.
Addressing that problem requires both short and long term action: short term, in
the form of international aid to help with the refugees, and long term in the
form of promoting effective, pluralistic democracies throughout Africa, so
political crises leading to displacement and refugees no longer occur.
Needless to say, none
of the suggested remedies is easy.