Worldwide Governance Indicators and Tanzania

Tanzania

Introduction

I recently came across a site providing measurement (from the 1990s) of various indicators of the quality of governance of nations. The project – an offshoot of the World Bank – is fascinating, and I’ve decided to see what I can do with it.

The easy and obvious approach would probably be to look at the data and, in effect, use it to confirm what is already well known (i.e., certain nations have more stability than others). However, that is not adding anything new.

What I have decided to do is to go through the data and see if I can use that to determine what nations are at risk of a deterioration which possibly could be arrested or minimised.

There are a few nations I have some concerns over – for instance, Bangladesh, which has been placed under enormous strain by the influx of Rohingya fleeing the genocide in burma. The most recent data, however, are from 2016, so that won’t show up. Two nations which are also on my mind are Uganda, which is experiencing pressure from refugees and neochristian zealots, and Tanzania, which had a very promising President elected recently, but seems to be experiencing some backsliding.

For this first self-set assignment, I’ll work on Tanzania, which – to an outsider like myself – has no obvious reason for problems, whereas Uganda is still in the three generation transition from the despot Amin to democracy (which Tanzania was the only nation brave/ethical/motivated enough to cause, through its military action to remove the tyrant who, in eight years of human rights abuses and incompetence had managed to kill possibly as many as half a million people).

Tanzania - The Governance Data

Using data from 2006 and 2010 to 2016 (inclusive), and comparing Tanzania’s data to the aggregated data for “sub-Saharan Africa”, the following is indicated:

Voice and Accountability

(capturing perceptions of the extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media)

Tanzania is consistently above the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, but with a peak percentile (aka “comparative rating”) of 44^th in 2011 and slow decline since then to a 38^th percentile in 2015 and 40^th percentile in 2016.

Political Stability and Absence of Violence

(capturing perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically-motivated violence, including terrorism)

This set of data is less clearly favouring Tanzania. Over the period 2010 to 2012, Tanzania’s percentile is consistent, and above the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, but outside that, it is more variable. In 2016, Tanzania had a 30^th percentile, compared to 32^nd for sub-Saharan Africa.
It should also be noted that sub-Saharan Africa declined from 36^th to 23^rd over this period.

Government Effectiveness

(capturing perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies)
The last four criteria are of particular interest to me.

On governmental effectiveness, while the mas aggregate of sub-Saharan African nations has been fairly stable on this aspect (percentile 27^th or 26^th), Tanzania declined from 40^th in 2006 to 26^th in 2014, after which it recovered to 34^th. I would expect a new, good President to be able to help cause something like this, but then we get to regulatory quality.

Regulatory Quality

(capturing perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development)

Tanzania has been consistently above the rest of sub-Saharan Africa on this (although still in the lower half of the worldwide range), but with a decline from 2014 to 2016 of 41^st to 36^th, over which period sub-Saharan Africa declined from 30^th to 28^th.

Rule of Law

(capturing perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence)

This aspect also shows a decline over the period 2006 to 2011, then a rise until 2015, declining to 38^th percentile (still above the relatively constant 30^th to 31^st percentiles for sub-Saharan Africa, and below the world median).

Control of Corruption

(capturing perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by elites and private interests)

I will shortly be seeing what the advocacy groups have to say, if anything, about this. As far as the data from this site goes, there was a marked decline from 49^th percentile in 2006 to 23^rd in 2013 (below the 30^th to 32^nd range for sub-Saharan Africa over 2006 -2016), after which there was a steady recovery to 35^th in 2016.

So . . . what happened? Why have these patterns been apparent?

I’ll look at some other information before I try to make sense of all this, but I also want to note that having a high or low percentile is a relative matter: it doesn’t mean, in an absolute sense, that something is either adequate or inadequate – that requires a whole other set of detailed investigations and analyses that I’m not in a position to do.

Tanzania - Other Information

My sources for additional information are:

• the CIA (yes, that CIA) “World Factbook” on Tanzania;
• the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies;
• the International Crisis Group;
• Freedom  House’s “Freedom in the World” – see historical listing here;
• several Wikipedia pages: overview of nation, the current President, the Uganda-Tanzania war which removed the tyrant Idi Amin, the founding President Nyerere, (lack of) LGBT rights, persecution of people with albinism, and human rights in Tanzania;
• news outlets:     the BBC overview and news articles,     Reuters news articles,     The Guardian news articles;
• the Federation of American Scientists’ (a surprising but useful reference) 2011 overview and 2017 assessment of current issues and US policy.

Key relevant information from these additional sources is summarised as follows (and would be better summarised had I more time – ah, roll on retirement :) ):

• Tanzania is largely stable, with a reasonably good history on ethics (including interventions in neighbours, and a position of “elder statesperson” for many of its key former figures) - see here, here, here, here, here, and here;
  (These are all secondary sources, as I don’t have the time [or money] to personally track down primary sources, but I am comfortable with this statement owing to range of sources stating this)
• although stable, Tanzania has a number of political issues, including:   a delayed transition to a weakly pluralistic democracy (see here, here, and here) with questions over aspects of the electoral process (particularly on Zanzibar – see here),   continuing restraint of political opposition (see, for instance, here, here, here, here, here),   suppression of media (see, for instance, here, here, here and here),   and corruption (see, for instance, here, here [which quadrupled revenue], and here) which, combined with poor service delivery, has “hampered efforts to curb widespread poverty and reduce widespread reliance on subsistence agriculture” (see here, ).
  The FAS 2011 overview included the following:
  “Although the Tanzanian government is not reported to be responsible for any politically motivated killings or disappearances in the past year, there have been several instances of unlawful killings by policemen and prison guards. Police and prison wardens are also accused of torturing and threatening suspected criminals. The police force lacks funding and is plagued by corruption and the excessive use of force. According to the State Department 2010 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices:
  Principal human rights problems in both Tanzania and Zanzibar included the following: use of excessive force by military personnel, police, and prison guards, as well as societal violence, which resulted in deaths and injuries; abuses by Sungusungo traditional citizens’ anticrime units; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions; lengthy pre-trial detention; judicial corruption and inefficiency, particularly in the lower courts; restrictions on freedoms of press and assembly; restrictions on the movement of refugees; official corruption and impunity; societal violence against women and persons with albinism; child abuse, including female genital mutilation (FGM); and discrimination based on sexual orientation. Trafficking in persons and child labour remained problems.”
  The 2017 FAS assessment also included a comment about “impunity in police and security forces, who sometimes act outside of civilian control” [emphasis added].
• the current President has a reputation for honesty, but is behaving in an authoritarian manner (he makes decisions without consultation, is notably authoritarian on freedom of expression [Tanzania has “grown rapidly following the advent of the multi-party era in the mid-1990s”, but “threats and attacks against journalists hinder critical reporting, according to US-based Freedom House”, and laws push media to self-censor – see here], has question why judges have been cleared of corruption [which could be corruption, or that they were innocent], and foreign workers have had their passports seized – see here) - what I would term the “Big Man” problem (although “strongman” seems to be the more applicable term used by others), which goes back to the personality cult which built up around the nation’s first President, someone who was not good for the economy initially, but whose ethics unified an ethnically and religiously diverse population (see here and here). Politically, Tanzania is ranked as “partly free”, which shows progress since the 70s and 80s;
• the current President was elected on a platform of addressing corruption. Although he has taken some action, as stated above, corruption remains a problem, and Transparency  International’s Corruption Perception Index for 2017 fives Tanzania a score of 36 out of 100, and a ranking of 103^rd out of 180;
• further to the political and human rights problems listed above, Tanzania has a number of other serious human rights problems, but the nation has, unlike some other African nations, committed to staying in the International Criminal Court (ICC):
  “Many of the countries that have spoken against withdrawal see the Court as an extension of their commitment to greater accountability for gross violations of human rights and international crimes”;
• other human rights problems in Tanzania include:   gender-based discrimination, which Tanzania was encouraged to continue its efforts at “discouraging traditions affecting gender equality” (see also here, here, here),   horrendous persecution of people with albinism (see also here),  discrimination against minorities (see here, for instance),   rampant homophobia and transphobia (see also here, ),   and a range of other issues – see here;
  The 2011 UN Human Rights Council’s periodic review on Tanzania made 96 recommendations which were supported by Tanzania, 53 recommendations which were to be examined by Tanzania by 2012, and 4 recommendations (on sexual orientation and “practices and stereotypes that discriminate [against] women) that were rejected. Tanzania can only be considered as homophobic, and probably also transphobic – and LGBT discrimination is a bellwether for discrimination generally which, combined with the appalling abuses of people with albinism, indicates a culture that is broadly stuck in superstition. Apart from the inherent problems of that alone, it shows a society that is vulnerable to the Big Man delusion;
• hundreds of thousands of refugees have fled to Tanzania (see here) from Burundi as a result of the crisis in the latter, and is causing problems in the former, as evidenced by this nonsensical call for Burundian refugees to return home;
• some violent extremism, including returning extremists, threats to tourism (also under threat by the impact of poachers), unrest in Zanzibar (see here, here,
• ongoing poverty (25^th poorest nation by GDP – see here, here, and here) and economic problems (see here, ), including a resource mining dispute (more resources [gas reserves] have been discovered). This is possibly not helped by having a population with a very high proportion of very young people (see here). Urbanisation is still low (around one third), but increasing, and there is a net emigration, suggesting dissatisfaction with life in Tanzania (see here);
• other issues including transhipment of drugs, and a range of health problems including HIV/AIDS, limited numbers of doctors, malnourishment, limited sanitation and unsafe drinking water (see here), indoor pollution from cooking fires (being addressed by electrification - see here and here), lack of pain relief (e.g., see here), tuberculosis (with a novel detection method – see here), mosquito borne disease.

Although they miss the crucial human rights issues, I will end this section with the following (slightly edited) summary from the 2017 FAS document and a key passage from an article on democratic transitions by the African Centre for Strategic Studies:

“Tanzania is likely to remain a generally stable but poor developing country for the foreseeable future. Increasing multiparty competition may contribute to gradual growth in demand for political change, democratic accountability, improved governance, and greater political pluralism—but potentially also to increased political tension. Growing access to information, notably via mobile phones, may spur similar trends by increasing exposure to information on current events, and global social and governance norms. . . . (Thomson Reuters Foundation/Kizito Makoye, “Mobile phones a boon for Tanzanian women in business, banking: researchers,” 5^th October, 2015, and “Tanzania rolls out birth registrations by mobile phone,” 13^th October, 2015) Such changes, along with continuing infusions of foreign assistance . . . and gradually improving public infrastructure and government services, are likely to spur increasing economic activity, production, and trade, thus improving quality of life for the Tanzanian people.”

and

“in Tanzania, it is still at times difficult to distinguish between the party, government, and military. However, commitment to separating them exists, and citizens are increasingly confident that the army is insulated against factional fights in CCM. Ghana, the foremost icon of African struggle politics, is now an emerging democracy after a tumultuous experience with military and autocratic rule. Like Somaliland, power there alternates between ruling and opposition parties. Tanzania, another African icon of liberation, albeit through a non-violent liberation movement like Ghana’s, thrives on a culture of peaceful power transfers and competition. Unlike Ghana, power remains within CCM. However, the Tanzanian political process—problems notwithstanding—allows space for opposition to challenge CCM policies.”

Tanzania – Conclusions

My conclusions – and these may be wrong - are:

• Tanzania has a major problem with corruption. The current President is good on this issue, but he is undoing all his hard work by wanting to be a strongman or possibly even a Big Man;
• The President’s authoritarian problem is symptomatic of, and contributing to that nation’s discomfort with difference – a discomfort which manifests in abuse of power (including political oppression and abuses by police and security forces) and savage, at times superstitious discrimination. All Tanzanians need to be comfortable with difference and disagreement over ideas – to be able to “agree to disagree”, as a way to stamp out discrimination and abuse of power as well as fix governance problems;
• Tanzania needs to learn how to capitalise on its natural resources and feed the income into education, especially of girls;
• Tanzania, a nation which has shown itself to be courageous and big-hearted, is experiencing a major impact from refugees. Addressing that problem requires both short and long term action: short term, in the form of international aid to help with the refugees, and long term in the form of promoting effective, pluralistic democracies throughout Africa, so political crises leading to displacement and refugees no longer occur.

Needless to say, none of the suggested remedies is easy.