Political Musings of Kayleen: March 2021

Sunday 28 March 2021

Learning from the past: the Roosevelts

As I recently mentioned, I've been watching the the Ken Burns documentary from a few years ago on the Roosevelts.

I still have a few episodes to go, but I have been surprised by some of the prescient comments of Theodore Roosevelt - although I still see him as a blood-soaked, militaristic, imperialist and sexist patriarchalist. The comments include that Japan would seek a further war (it takes one to know one?), and that the Republican party would wind up serving "special interests". The extent of his progressivism in his unsuccessful 1912 campaign is also impressive, as is his early (pre-World War One) support for the League to Enforce Peace.

Now for the next episode . . .

Saturday 27 March 2021

On Burma, and from the news

On Burma this week:

the protests and killings continue - see here, here, here, and here, as is the crushing of dissent;
they have come for the poets;
one foreign news service journalist has been released;
trump's regime refused to declare the genocide against the Rohingya to be that;
hundreds of police are continuing to flee into India;
ASEAN's quiet diplomacy is continuing.

From the news this week:

the pandemic is NOT over yet - and an opinion that "we need social science, not just medical science, to beat the pandemic";
allegations Australia's minerals council is trying to export its "negative approach to climate policy" as Canada's conservatives and toxic social media users show their stupidity; an argument for increasing aid to ensure poorer nations can address the climate crisis (and for using "multilateral development banks" in the fight against COVID-19); an explainer on the obvious - why the climate crisis is making the weather worse; inadequate preparation for disasters - specifically, inadequate evacuation centres; a call to support Indigenous people's efforts to protect forests and the environment;
the resistance to change of those "sleeping on the wrong side of history" . . . ; the USA is at Stage 10 (denial) in its genocides against Native Americans and Black Americans; Guinea is at Stage 6 (polarisation);
the dangerous destruction of trust and thus democracy in Australia; "UK conservatives are prepared to increase tax to fund essential government services while in Australia, ... conservatives try to achieve small government by stealth by not properly funding key government responsibilities"; the RBA's attempts to increase wages are being stymied by the vindictiveness of the neolibs; more bad faith viciousness by Australia's social security department - and our discriminatory refusal to issue a visa on the excuse of a disability is a breach of international obligations; harassing job seekers with "mutual obligations" and other BS STOPS them getting jobs;
corruption in Kenya and South Sudan; anti-corruption whistleblowers in the DRC have been sentenced in absentia to death; Putin has removed age limits for his cronies;
Thailand's king is enmeshing the monarchy in politics, thereby undermining constitutional monarchy;
a call to protect encryption;
the concept of a middle power nation as "a balance between two extremes";
China has the started the show trial of one of the foreign nationals it is holding as hostages as sanctions against China for its genocide against the Uyghurs are spreading - and sanctions for human rights abuses also on Eritrea, and a South Sudanese general; vindictive China is trying to bully those who want Tibet to be treated with decency into silence;
delivery of the Australian navy's new patrol boats has been slowed because China sent a batch of "deficient" aluminium (why are we buying Chinese aluminium for a military need?); China's "debt trap diplomacy" in Central Asia;
a multi-national corporation is being tried in France for spying on its employees;
attention seeking North Korea has been firing what are probably ballistic missiles towards Japan again;
the modern nation of Bangladesh has existed for two generations, and its democracy is struggling . . . ;
facebook consider death threats and other abuses acceptable . . . ;
an opinion - against a history of duplicity and human rights abuses on both sides leaving nothing but bleakness and despair for the people of Yemen - that Saudi Arabia has now clearly lost its war in Yemen;
Saudi Arabia has "issued [a] death threat against [the] UN's [female] Khashoggi investigator". Also, death threats against journalists in Kyrgyzstan;
the recent fire in a Rohingya refugee camp killed at least 15, left hundreds missing, and has displaced 50,000 people;
young people are leading the protests in Thailand;
a trans school in Pakistan; LGBT discrimination in South Korea has led to a very public suicide; homophobia in Uzbekistan;
ASIO will continue to identify and call out nationalist and racist ideological threats - which is a timely promise, given nazi threats here and the latest massacre by gun in the USA - which came after US courts blocked an assault rifle ban in response to pressure from their gun nuts associations, who then bragged about their success (still shooting your mouths off, gun nuts? There is a call to hold gun manufacturers accountable, as well as an interesting comment that crime rates are not higher in the USA, but the proliferation of guns means more crimes have a violent outcome [see also here]). Also on US courts, in a blow to open justice, US courts are resorting to secret procedures;
police showed their ineptness, stupidity and unprofessionalism by conducting an intrusive and oppressive investigation of a colleague with prurient questions;
police racism against Indigenous youth; business falsely claiming to be Indigenous; more criticism of the idiot who claimed a recent mass murder was not racist; racism in Europe; one US suburb is planning to pay reparations; Israel's PM continues to copy the US republicans' playbook by using racist fears and an alliance with a far right wing extremist party; staggering stupidity around a planned art event shows the need for art curators with community perspective; republicans have introduced racist voting restrictions in a US state;
strong condemnation of racism and sexism in the USA - which is still abusing immigrants;
Turkey has moved to allow domestic violence;   women only villages in Kenya are leading to land equality;   avoiding sexual slavery for daughters is one of the factors leading women to flee Central America;   a near billion dollar settlement against a uni for allowing and covering up sexual abuse;
staggering revelations that Scott appears to have misled the Australian Parliament;   BS claims that Scott wouldn't have been safe as stonewalling leads to comments that the actions - including a false claim of complaints at a media organisation - of Scott's government look like a cover up and women members of the Liberals are called out for supporting misogyny - and, on that, "‘Cultural misogyny’ and why men’s aggression to women is so often expressed through sex"; Scott's government DILLIGAF on anyone in strife - but a neolib Qld MP has been forced to apologise for abuse of two women but the Tas Libs have sacked a female MP who reported an alleged sexual assault;   the political crisis over the workplace culture in Parliament is deepening;   another sexual assault allegation in an Australian parliament as some Liberal women MPs object to tokenism (others object to quotas), a national cabinet reshuffle is considered, and staffers raise concerns about excessive secrecy in the proposed enquiry into Parliamentary culture; a formal complaint about the abuse of a rape victim's partner has led to backtracking; a reminder that sexual assault have plagued Indigenous women for centuries and the current reaction has a racist element;   a call to let victims have legal representation to protect survivors of sexual assault from abuse because "questioning of sexual assault victims during trials 'worse' than in the 1950s" - which, despite the comments about defence requirements is a large part of WHY women do not subject ourselves to this SECOND SEXUAL ASSAULT;   a critique of the AFP and politicisation;
more classes in sexual consent;   a rebuttal of media myths on trauma;   more sexism in sport; tenancy laws around breaking a lease are trapping women in DV;   sexual coercion/blackmail in Australia's farm backpacker scheme;   male sexual assault victims are also raising their voices;
we are losing food farmland to urban developments;
cyber-ineptness in some Australia government departments.

Friday 26 March 2021

Trust in the workplace

In our too often slightly sad (and too often terrible) world, a lot of people seem to make the mistake of conflating workmate (more formally and specifically, "work colleague") with "friend".

They're not.

It is essential for people in the workplace (and elsewhere, for that matter) to be respectful of each other - to allow others to bring their authentic selves to work (I'd qualify that with "provided that authentic self is inclusive", but people who think a non-inclusive version of themself is authentic are badly scarred, completely out of touch with themselves, and in desperate need of psychological healing), and be able to work with others harmoniously.

Some of those badly scarred people I mentioned may make the mistake of thinking they can force the outcomes of friendship (willingly spending time with each other, doing extra things for each other) on work teams with the same result, but that is truly insane thinking (and one such person I knew back in the 80s I have no hesitation describing as a psychopath). Such enforcement is merely an act of abuse, likely to lead to increased turnover, reduced productivity, and - ultimately - court cases against the company concerned. (There are a lot of management practices like that in recent years - sometimes presented as if it is about safety, although it is not actually caring about workers' wellbeing: it is about minimising the risk of litigation from physical injury. As such, these measures are often psychologically intrusive, and thus inherently psychologically abusive - and therefore likely to lead to the same three undesirable outcomes. This distortion came about when those who are incompetent at being human [which is broader than "psychopath / sociopath"] started struggling with OHS laws that were gradually introduced from the late 1980s onwards. Fortunately, where I work two mangers - who are in the five I mention below, one is in the three - have introduced what football teams describe as a "no ****heads policy", and that is helping either remove or contain those inclined to abuse.)

The company I work for has over four thousand employees - nearly two thousand here in Australia alone.

Of those, I trust five - I enjoy the company of many others, I get along well enough with others to joke with them, but I am neutral on trust or slightly wary, and of all those, I count three of those five as friends. (And there are a few I've seriously considered legal action against - most retired or close to retiring now.)

Enjoy the company of the people you work with - be a decent human being yourself, but don't mistake that for friendship; be appropriately cautious about who you decide to trust, which is one the early steps towards friendship; and never think you can go down a psychological cargo-cult type of path and force an outcome (such as closeness and supportiveness) on people and have that lead to the cause (friendship).

Sunday 21 March 2021

Binarybusters special: leadership in TGD communities

See https://www.3cr.org.au/outofthepan/episode-202103211200/binarybusters-special-leadership-tgd-communties

PS - I was extremely tired when recording this

Saturday 20 March 2021

On Uganda, Burma, the attempted coup in the USA, and from the news

On Uganda this week:

Bobi Wine has been arrested - again;
the East Africa Law Society is suing Uganda for shutting down the Internet.

On Burma this week:

dozens of protestors killed and anti-Chinese sentiment has led to arson as "the Quad nations" (USA, Japan, India, and Australia) allegedly vow to restore democracy in Burma;
martial law has been declared in Burma's capital;
as more calls are made for sanctions, and look more likely, a UN expert says the coup leaders in Burma "belong behind bars";
the UN is seeking evidence to build a case against the human rights criminals in Burma;
"blunt" criticism from Indonesia;
the despots in Burma are using facial recognition tech;
women are taking a leading role in protests - and there is also this, which was effective in 2007.

On the attempted coup in the USA:

police exhibited sympathy for right wing extremists long before the attempted coup (and where there is one form of bigotry, there will be others).

From the news this week:

a step towards the evils of "The Matrix" . . . ;
climate crisis induced disasters have displaced 10 million people in the last six months; one billion people live in cities shifting away from fossil fuels; carbon emissions from trawlers match aviation;
the UK plans of stockpiling 40% more nuclear weapons;
R2P concerns in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel, China, DRC, Ethiopia, Burma, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, and CAR, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan;
a comment on historic verdict at International Criminal Court;
from SIPRI: "The volume of international transfers of major arms in 2016–20 was 0.5 per cent lower than in 2011–15 and 12 per cent higher than in 2006–10. The five largest arms exporters in 2016–20 were the United States, Russia, France, Germany and China. The five largest arms importers were Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, Australia and China. Between 2011–15 and 2016–20 there were increases in arms transfers to the Middle East and to Europe, while there were decreases in the transfers to Africa, the Americas, and Asia and Oceania";
the Tigray conflict may lead to a border war between Ethiopia and Sudan;
a combination of Kim ⅓'s ill health and a staggeringly sexist power structure may see no-one leading North Korea;
the decade long disaster in Syria - and Libya;
in a disturbing parallel with Burma, the Sudanese army has business organisations;
an assessment of Nigeria's demilitarisation/integration programme for former VEs;
a call for sanctions against Cambodia's "dirty dozen";
US President Biden has criticised Putin as soulless and a killer, and warned consequences for Putin's actions will come;
“Why the Chinese Communist Party Sees Tibetan Monks as ‘Troublemakers’ ” (and is thus “sinicizing” Tibetan Buddhism); China is breaking up Uyghur families by stealing children; the USA has warned China - which has been telling pork pies about talks with the USA - against "coercion and aggression", and threats from China against a US island may lead to a new US military base; the USA has told China to stop attacking Australia;
an opinion that Israel's next war might be multi-front;
dozens of lawyers have been murdered under the Philippines' current president marcos-lite;
now New Zealand may refer us to the UN over Scott's policies of hate . . . ; accusations that ASIO's change of terminology was to protect RWNJs have been denied;
the problem of "ahistoricism", which "refers to a lack of concern for history, historical development, or tradition" as compared to this, on the history of Taiwan;
concerns over Bolivia;
13 police have been murdered in Mexico;
Belarus has extended it's anti-opposition behaviour to its entry for Eurovision;
Denmark has decided discrimination against the poor from overseas is a "solution" to the risk of radicalisation - not fixing poverty, not counter narratives, not improving inclusion, rather it has chosen to manifest hate and fear . . . ;
elections will continue in the CAR;
IGAD mobilisation of grassroots peace activists;
on changing the world peacefully;
a former Liberal PM has commented that "Like Howard, Morrison plays politics at the expense of good government";
as NSW police admit they closed the investigation into an alleged sexual assault of a minor in the 1980s by the AG the problems without having received all the evidence (there are also concerns about police not passing on information about child abuse in the NT, police stopping protests in the UK, police in Malawi have been ordered to pay compensation to a women they raped, and arrest warrants have been issued for three police in Nigeria over an alleged murder, and police in Kenya have been found responsible for the death of a girl and for not arresting her killer); a massive backlash in the UK against police over how they broke up a protests at the murder of a woman for which a serving police officer has been charged;   Qld's notoriously misogynistic police have decided women only police stations that have been so successful elsewhere won't work in Qld . . . ;   a call for the enquiry into Parliamentary culture to be extended to government departments;   the AG has commenced defamation proceedings against a media outlet (and will have restricted duties to avoid a conflict of interest . . . who will attend to the gap?) and journalist over reports on the allegations of rape and intends to give evidence under oath;
calls for change in the Parliamentary culture enquiry to protect staff from trauma;   a workplace threat of pack rape (claimed to be a "joke" . . . ) in Tasmania's ambulance service has been referred to police;
powerful speeches at the women's protest marches - which have met a stupid (non)response from the neolib government; (on social media - my apologies) how to call out sexism / racism in the workplace;   from Twitter: "Today was the anniversary of when an Australian right wing terrorist murdered 51 people while they were praying in Christchurch. Meanwhile, the Australian prime minister observed that women are lucky they didn't get shot for protesting today. take a while to think about that";   Australia's representative to the UN has been stunned by Scott's comment that women marching should be grateful they're not shot . . . ; experts have said Scott's inaction on the allegations led to the victim being subjected to "trial by media"; claims of harassment of women and aggressive behaviour within the ALP have led to a shoot-yourself-in-the-foot response (women must be listened to, but wants them to come forward);   victim robbing by the national neolib nitwits;   misogynistic complaints in Russia about its pro-women song entry to Eurovision;   the wives of former PMs have stated nothing has changed in a generation;
an elitist all-male private school has referred allegations of sexual assault and harassment to police; the stupid advice by authorities and police to women after the recent murder of a woman (for which a police officer has been charged) has been previously tried and failed (in the 1970s in northern England);
"What does a rapist look like?";
Mexico's ruling party has selected an accused rapist as a candidate . . . ;   solar lighting is allowing women in Kenya to fish at night rather than be sex slaves;   France's highest court has partially protected child rapists under an "archaic" law;   a boost to fight against FGM in Kenya,
an Indigenous perspective on the Yoo-rrook Truth and Justice Commission - Aboriginal people do not have to forgive, and perpetrators should NOT set the terms of truth-telling; from the USA, eight ways white LGBTIQ+ people can be better allies to black people; calls to support a new national anti-racism plan in Australia; a partnership of descendants of former slaves and former slaveholders/slavers is seeking to raise US$100 million in reparations;
confirmation of homophobia in neocatholic sect; homophobia still in Tasmania; the USA is continuing down its anti-LGBTIQ+ path - with the aid of Democrats who support the filibuster; a rebuttal of transphobia in sports;
widespread violent Islamophobia against mosques in Australia;
50% of people are ageist;
Amnesty International Urgent Actions in Xinjiang, Somalia, and Mozambique;
Australians who are part of the evil world of mercenaries are undermining all of us;
facebook has left anti-vaxxer nut job pages up - despite promising not to;
journalists are FINALLY catching up to what the rest of us known for decades: the Press Council (for complaints) is utterly useless;
a judge jailed a man "in error" (!) and is being sued (he is claiming judicial immunity, but the legal case is trying a novel way to get around that - if this case doesn't succeed, I hope he can bring a case against the Commonwealth);
more information on why the "dehumanising" independent assessments should be scrapped from the money-hungry neolib-afflicted NDIS;
TV shows can be powerful tools for public health (I recall something similar in Brazil, where soap characters being shown having fewer children led to a reduced birthrate);
a call to re-adopt the "full employment" policy; Scott and Pauline's attack on workers has been partly deflected; the victim of wage theft and assault in a workplace has, with supporters, been doxxed by gutless coward "apple123321";
legal questions about the ALP's powers to investigate branch stacking;
a spent convictions scheme - but police courts and unspecified (who???) "certain employers and third parties" still can access;
belated evidence supporting what people like myself have known for years: some anti-bullying programmes in schools make things worse;
psychopaths, who cause billions of dollars in damage to economies as they climb the corporate ladder, using techniques such as bullying colleagues into obedience and justify poor behaviour as "hard decisions that had to be made", can be protected against by "sceptical due diligence" during job applications and taking a harder line on behavioural standards.

Wednesday 17 March 2021

Thailand

Thailand is a land of 70 million well-educated people, with the world’s 18^th largest economy [1].

From the CIA’s World Factbook:

With a relatively well-developed infrastructure, a free-enterprise economy, and generally pro-investment policies, Thailand is highly dependent on international trade, with exports accounting for about two thirds of GDP. Thailand’s exports include electronics, agricultural commodities, automobiles and parts, and processed foods. The industry and service sectors produce about 90% of GDP. The agricultural sector, comprised mostly of small-scale farms, contributes only 10% of GDP but employs about one third of the labour force. Thailand has attracted an estimated 3.0-4.5 million migrant workers, mostly from neighbouring countries.

Of the international economic connections, in 2017 exports were to China (12.4%), US (11.2%), Japan (9.5%), Hong Kong (5.2%), Vietnam (4.9%), Australia (4.5%), and Malaysia (4.4%), and imports were from China (20%), Japan (14.5%), USA (6.8%), and Malaysia (5.4%). External debt is 44^th in the world, comparable to New Zealand, Taiwan and Qatar, and the nation’s Standard and Poors credit rating is BBB+.

The international connectedness is also reflected in Thailand’s engagement with international treaties and organisations - although Thailand has signed up for membership of the ICC, but not ratified that.

Thailand, first occupied by humans at least 20,000 years ago (with signs of rice cultivation from 4,000 years ago) has a long history of independence, dating back officially to 1238, when a local Tai leader took advantage of the declining Kingdom of Pagan in (largely central) Burma to rebel against Khmer (or Angkor) Empire in Cambodia and establish the Sukhothai Kingdom. In considering that, it is useful to note that Thailand has mountains to west, along the border with Burma, and a plateau in east, the edge of which forms the border with the lower altitudes of Cambodia. The nation has a fertile valley between the two.

The monarchy continued, known for a significant period as Siam, until a “bloodless revolution in 1932 led to a constitutional monarchy” with a bicameral National Assembly, and universal suffrage for those over 18. The nation is the only Southeast Asian country never to have been colonised by a European power, but was invaded by Japan during World War Two (a 5 hour invasion on 8^th December, 1941), “which led to an armistice and military alliance treaty between Thailand and the Japanese Empire”.

Significantly, there was a Thai resistance movement to that occupation and alliance, with a notable figure in that being Thailand’s then Ambassador to the USA, who refused to deliver the formal declaration of war on the USA - in response to which “the United States refrained from declaring war on Thailand”, which is of major significance in ending the war and the aftermath (no need for peace treaties and possibly reparations). Thailand aligned with the USA in 1954, and sent troops to the conflicts in Korea and Vietnam.

Thailand’s people exhibit significant uniformity, with 97.5% being ethnically Thai and 95% being Buddhist. The CIA World Factbook reports that “Over the last few decades, Thailand has reduced poverty substantially”: per capita GDP was US$18,460 in 2019, 96^th in the world - comparable to Belarus, Botswana and Serbia. Safe drinking water and sanitation is near universal (I worked briefly on one such project in 2005 in Bangkok, and noted the calls for politeness in politics in letters to the editor - and felt quite safe everywhere I went, including on occasion when I got briefly lost). Literacy is good. Overall unemployment in 2019 was around 1%, 7^th in the world (the USA was 58^th, Australia 83^rd), but youth unemployment was 3.7% (170^th in the world, comparable to Japan). 7.2% lived below the poverty line in 2015, and the inequality measuring Gini Index (in 2018) was 36.4 - 91^st in the world (New Zealand was 92^nd).

All of that will have been changed by the pandemic, but it creates a context for the changes since around 2001 - 2005, shown clearly by the World Bank’s governance indicators shown below (from http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Reports , accessed 16^th March, 2021).

This is where we start considering the Thai military, a force of around 370,000 receiving 1.4% of the GDP, and equipped with “a diverse array of foreign-supplied weapons systems, including a large amount of obsolescent or second-hand US equipment; since 2010, the top suppliers are China, South Korea, Sweden, Ukraine, and the US (2020)”. As part of Thailand’s history of international engagement, 270 troops have been contributed to UNMISS in South Sudan.

However, “including the most recent in 2014, the military has attempted nearly 20 coups since the fall of absolute monarchy in 1932”. In fact, the absence of international reaction to the most recent coup is considered likely to have contributed to the Burmese military performing their recent coup.

In addition, “since 2004, the military has fought against [a] separatist insurgents in the southern provinces . . . rooted in ethnic Malay nationalist resistance to Thai rule that followed the extension of Siamese sovereignty over the Patani Sultanate in the 18^th century . . . [which] has claimed about 7,000 lives; as of mid-2020, an estimated 100,000 military and paramilitary forces were deployed”.

The violence has been driving Buddhist Thais north, and the violence and marginalisation has been driving Muslim Malays south, to Malaysia.

That is probably the most significant border dispute for Thailand (there is one with Laos over islands in the Mekong River), but also:

Thailand must deal with Karen and other ethnic rebels, refugees, and illegal cross-border activities (the nation has around “100,000 mostly Karen refugees fleeing civil strife, political upheaval and economic stagnation in Burma live in remote camps in Thailand near the border” as of 2020);
there is border dispute with Cambodia (the [Hindu] Preah Vihear temple ruins were awarded to Cambodia by an ICJ decision in 1962) which resulted in fighting in 2011;
Thailand is studying the feasibility of jointly constructing the Hatgyi Dam on the Salween river near the border with Burma (“international environmentalist pressure prompted China to halt construction of 13 dams on the Salween River that flows through China, Burma, and Thailand” in 2004).

In addition:

stateless persons:
475,009 (2019) (estimate represents stateless persons registered with the Thai Government; actual number may be as high as 3.5 million);
note - about half of Thailand's northern hill tribe people do not have citizenship and make up the bulk of Thailand's stateless population; most lack documentation showing they or one of their parents were born in Thailand; children born to Burmese refugees are not eligible for Burmese or Thai citizenship and are stateless; most Chao Lay, maritime nomadic peoples, who travel from island to island in the Andaman Sea west of Thailand are also stateless; stateless Rohingya refugees from Burma are considered illegal migrants by Thai authorities and are detained in inhumane conditions or expelled; stateless persons are denied access to voting, property, education, employment, healthcare, . . .
note: Thai nationality was granted to more than 23,000 stateless persons between 2012 and 2016; in 2016, the Government of Thailand approved changes to its citizenship laws that could make 80,000 stateless persons eligible for citizenship, as part of its effort to achieve zero statelessness by 2024 (2018)

Overall, I consider Thailand unlikely to be a significantly disruptive military power in the region, with the exceptions of “inspiring” the Burmese military, and the ongoing dispute in the south.

Also in the south, there have been proposals since the 17^th Century to create a canal which could divert 20 - 30% of maritime traffic from the Straits of Malacca, which is currently the 2^nd busiest shipping zone in world, taking 15-20% global trade and 30% global oil shipment, and which the World Bank considers won’t cope with future growth. This proposal is attractive to China (which considers it part of the Belt and Road Initiative, but is also looking at oil & gas pipelines through Burma), South Korea and Japan, which are all dependent on the crude oil supplies from the Middle East and the markets in Europe. The proposal would cost around $20 - 30 billion and take ten years to build, but would cope only with medium size tankers and bulk carriers - not modern super container ships, which would have to continue diverting around Indonesia.

Thailand, however, is opposed to the idea politically, as it would exacerbate the separation between the Buddhist north and the Muslim insurgency in south (I personally consider the project, if built, may lead to the southern areas being absorbed into Malaysia, although that process would likely take decades of suffering), and would put Thailand into the USA-China-India geopolitical bunfight. [2]

I started this section on the military with: “the military has attempted nearly 20 coups since the fall of absolute monarchy in 1932”, and I’ve also noted the decline in governance.

Freedom House reports that Thailand has declined from “partly free” to now being “not free” [3]:

Thailand’s status declined from Partly Free to Not Free due to the dissolution of a popular opposition party that had performed well in the 2019 elections, and the military-dominated government’s crackdown on youth-led protests calling for democratic reforms.

Following five years of military dictatorship, Thailand transitioned to a military-dominated, semi-elected government in 2019. In 2020, the combination of democratic deterioration and frustrations over the role of the monarchy provoked the country’s largest antigovernment demonstrations in a decade. In response to these youth-led protests, the regime resorted to familiar authoritarian tactics, including arbitrary arrests, intimidation, lèse-majesté charges, and harassment of activists. Freedom of the press is constrained, due process is not guaranteed, and there is impunity for crimes committed against activists.

The reported human rights problems are backed up by:

Amnesty International: “Activists, academics, opposition politicians, and human rights defenders were arrested, detained and prosecuted for peacefully expressing their views on the government and monarchy. The government maintained systematic and arbitrary restrictions on human rights, including by passing a new cybersecurity law. Refugees and asylum-seekers were vulnerable to arrest, detention, deportation, and rendition.” [4];
Human Rights Watch: “The government of Prime Minister Gen. Prayut Chan-ocha, in a second term in office after flawed 2019 elections, has done little to address the repressive legacy of military dictatorship. Authorities frequently suppress and prosecute critics of the monarchy and the government. Covid-19 measures have become a pretext for censorship and restriction on peaceful rallies. Rights defenders face constant risk, harassment, and retaliatory lawsuits from government agencies and private companies. In the southern border provinces, government security forces and insurgents commit abuses in ongoing armed conflicts. More than three million migrant workers from neighbouring countries face systematic abuses and exploitation despite government promises for reform. Refugees and asylum seekers endure arrest, prolonged detention, and deportation to persecution in their home countries.” [5]; and
the International Crisis Group: “Thailand’s junta has relinquished military rule in favour of pseudo-democracy in which a pro-military party governs with a narrow parliamentary majority. There are no obvious near-term triggers for political turmoil in Thailand, but the country’s fundamental political and social divisions have not been bridged, and there is potential for future conflict. In the deep south, the Malay-Muslim separatist insurgency continues, while the dialogue process appears moribund. Crisis Group aims to reduce the risk of escalation in the south and limit medium-term threats to political stability by supporting strengthened democratic institutions and promoting substantive peace talks.” [6].

Since 2020, a protest movement, largely youth, has been growing. From Wikipedia [7]:

Causes:

o Dissolution of the pro-democracy Future Forward Party

o Political corruption scandals, including 1MDB

o Distrust in the 2019 general election and the current political system, competitive authoritarianism and illiberal democracy

o Legal inequality and human rights abuses

o LGBT discrimination, gender inequality, and patriarchy

o Economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic and government response

o Increasing royal prerogative and lèse majesté law

o Internet censorship

Goals

o Dissolution of the House and fresh legislative elections

o Ending intimidation of the people

o Drafting a new constitution

o Abolition of the military-appointed Senate

o Amendment of royal prerogative and lèse majesté law

o Increasing civil, economic and political rights

Methods

Demonstrations, sit-ins, flash protests, online activism, petition, protest art, consumer activism

The response, including declaration of a State of Emergency, has been harsh [8] - in addition to the human rights violations noted above, ACLED [9] has assessed violence in Thailand for 2020 as follows:

Overall, events since 2005, and particularly since 2019, show the problems that occur when people in power decide to try to cling to that power, possibly out of fear of change: resistance will occur, particularly amongst the young - even more so in a nation that has a proud history of independence.

That resistance is likely, in my opinion, to ultimately be successful, so the military need to make a decision - a decision which the military in Burma also face: will they be a military, serving their nation, or will they be a junta (whether overt or covert) bringing death and destruction (apart from anything else, consumer boycotts are not out of the question, and that will restrict international trade) to that which they allegedly care about?

Time, in my opinion, for those militaries to grow up - they have enough issues to face, as does Thailand generally, with the desire for self determination that discrimination has increased in the south, dealing with problems being exported by Burma, statelessness issues, and their likely unwilling involvement in the geopolitical standoff between the USA, China, and India.

Consider this hierarchy of needs for nations: