Political Musings of Kayleen: Thailand

Thailand is a land of 70 million well-educated people, with the world’s 18^th largest economy [1].

From the CIA’s World Factbook:

With a relatively well-developed infrastructure, a free-enterprise economy, and generally pro-investment policies, Thailand is highly dependent on international trade, with exports accounting for about two thirds of GDP. Thailand’s exports include electronics, agricultural commodities, automobiles and parts, and processed foods. The industry and service sectors produce about 90% of GDP. The agricultural sector, comprised mostly of small-scale farms, contributes only 10% of GDP but employs about one third of the labour force. Thailand has attracted an estimated 3.0-4.5 million migrant workers, mostly from neighbouring countries.

Of the international economic connections, in 2017 exports were to China (12.4%), US (11.2%), Japan (9.5%), Hong Kong (5.2%), Vietnam (4.9%), Australia (4.5%), and Malaysia (4.4%), and imports were from China (20%), Japan (14.5%), USA (6.8%), and Malaysia (5.4%). External debt is 44^th in the world, comparable to New Zealand, Taiwan and Qatar, and the nation’s Standard and Poors credit rating is BBB+.

The international connectedness is also reflected in Thailand’s engagement with international treaties and organisations - although Thailand has signed up for membership of the ICC, but not ratified that.

Thailand, first occupied by humans at least 20,000 years ago (with signs of rice cultivation from 4,000 years ago) has a long history of independence, dating back officially to 1238, when a local Tai leader took advantage of the declining Kingdom of Pagan in (largely central) Burma to rebel against Khmer (or Angkor) Empire in Cambodia and establish the Sukhothai Kingdom. In considering that, it is useful to note that Thailand has mountains to west, along the border with Burma, and a plateau in east, the edge of which forms the border with the lower altitudes of Cambodia. The nation has a fertile valley between the two.

The monarchy continued, known for a significant period as Siam, until a “bloodless revolution in 1932 led to a constitutional monarchy” with a bicameral National Assembly, and universal suffrage for those over 18. The nation is the only Southeast Asian country never to have been colonised by a European power, but was invaded by Japan during World War Two (a 5 hour invasion on 8^th December, 1941), “which led to an armistice and military alliance treaty between Thailand and the Japanese Empire”.

Significantly, there was a Thai resistance movement to that occupation and alliance, with a notable figure in that being Thailand’s then Ambassador to the USA, who refused to deliver the formal declaration of war on the USA - in response to which “the United States refrained from declaring war on Thailand”, which is of major significance in ending the war and the aftermath (no need for peace treaties and possibly reparations). Thailand aligned with the USA in 1954, and sent troops to the conflicts in Korea and Vietnam.

Thailand’s people exhibit significant uniformity, with 97.5% being ethnically Thai and 95% being Buddhist. The CIA World Factbook reports that “Over the last few decades, Thailand has reduced poverty substantially”: per capita GDP was US$18,460 in 2019, 96^th in the world - comparable to Belarus, Botswana and Serbia. Safe drinking water and sanitation is near universal (I worked briefly on one such project in 2005 in Bangkok, and noted the calls for politeness in politics in letters to the editor - and felt quite safe everywhere I went, including on occasion when I got briefly lost). Literacy is good. Overall unemployment in 2019 was around 1%, 7^th in the world (the USA was 58^th, Australia 83^rd), but youth unemployment was 3.7% (170^th in the world, comparable to Japan). 7.2% lived below the poverty line in 2015, and the inequality measuring Gini Index (in 2018) was 36.4 - 91^st in the world (New Zealand was 92^nd).

All of that will have been changed by the pandemic, but it creates a context for the changes since around 2001 - 2005, shown clearly by the World Bank’s governance indicators shown below (from http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Reports , accessed 16^th March, 2021).

This is where we start considering the Thai military, a force of around 370,000 receiving 1.4% of the GDP, and equipped with “a diverse array of foreign-supplied weapons systems, including a large amount of obsolescent or second-hand US equipment; since 2010, the top suppliers are China, South Korea, Sweden, Ukraine, and the US (2020)”. As part of Thailand’s history of international engagement, 270 troops have been contributed to UNMISS in South Sudan.

However, “including the most recent in 2014, the military has attempted nearly 20 coups since the fall of absolute monarchy in 1932”. In fact, the absence of international reaction to the most recent coup is considered likely to have contributed to the Burmese military performing their recent coup.

In addition, “since 2004, the military has fought against [a] separatist insurgents in the southern provinces . . . rooted in ethnic Malay nationalist resistance to Thai rule that followed the extension of Siamese sovereignty over the Patani Sultanate in the 18^th century . . . [which] has claimed about 7,000 lives; as of mid-2020, an estimated 100,000 military and paramilitary forces were deployed”.

The violence has been driving Buddhist Thais north, and the violence and marginalisation has been driving Muslim Malays south, to Malaysia.

That is probably the most significant border dispute for Thailand (there is one with Laos over islands in the Mekong River), but also:

Thailand must deal with Karen and other ethnic rebels, refugees, and illegal cross-border activities (the nation has around “100,000 mostly Karen refugees fleeing civil strife, political upheaval and economic stagnation in Burma live in remote camps in Thailand near the border” as of 2020);
there is border dispute with Cambodia (the [Hindu] Preah Vihear temple ruins were awarded to Cambodia by an ICJ decision in 1962) which resulted in fighting in 2011;
Thailand is studying the feasibility of jointly constructing the Hatgyi Dam on the Salween river near the border with Burma (“international environmentalist pressure prompted China to halt construction of 13 dams on the Salween River that flows through China, Burma, and Thailand” in 2004).

In addition:

stateless persons:
475,009 (2019) (estimate represents stateless persons registered with the Thai Government; actual number may be as high as 3.5 million);
note - about half of Thailand's northern hill tribe people do not have citizenship and make up the bulk of Thailand's stateless population; most lack documentation showing they or one of their parents were born in Thailand; children born to Burmese refugees are not eligible for Burmese or Thai citizenship and are stateless; most Chao Lay, maritime nomadic peoples, who travel from island to island in the Andaman Sea west of Thailand are also stateless; stateless Rohingya refugees from Burma are considered illegal migrants by Thai authorities and are detained in inhumane conditions or expelled; stateless persons are denied access to voting, property, education, employment, healthcare, . . .
note: Thai nationality was granted to more than 23,000 stateless persons between 2012 and 2016; in 2016, the Government of Thailand approved changes to its citizenship laws that could make 80,000 stateless persons eligible for citizenship, as part of its effort to achieve zero statelessness by 2024 (2018)

Overall, I consider Thailand unlikely to be a significantly disruptive military power in the region, with the exceptions of “inspiring” the Burmese military, and the ongoing dispute in the south.

Also in the south, there have been proposals since the 17^th Century to create a canal which could divert 20 - 30% of maritime traffic from the Straits of Malacca, which is currently the 2^nd busiest shipping zone in world, taking 15-20% global trade and 30% global oil shipment, and which the World Bank considers won’t cope with future growth. This proposal is attractive to China (which considers it part of the Belt and Road Initiative, but is also looking at oil & gas pipelines through Burma), South Korea and Japan, which are all dependent on the crude oil supplies from the Middle East and the markets in Europe. The proposal would cost around $20 - 30 billion and take ten years to build, but would cope only with medium size tankers and bulk carriers - not modern super container ships, which would have to continue diverting around Indonesia.

Thailand, however, is opposed to the idea politically, as it would exacerbate the separation between the Buddhist north and the Muslim insurgency in south (I personally consider the project, if built, may lead to the southern areas being absorbed into Malaysia, although that process would likely take decades of suffering), and would put Thailand into the USA-China-India geopolitical bunfight. [2]

I started this section on the military with: “the military has attempted nearly 20 coups since the fall of absolute monarchy in 1932”, and I’ve also noted the decline in governance.

Freedom House reports that Thailand has declined from “partly free” to now being “not free” [3]:

Thailand’s status declined from Partly Free to Not Free due to the dissolution of a popular opposition party that had performed well in the 2019 elections, and the military-dominated government’s crackdown on youth-led protests calling for democratic reforms.

Following five years of military dictatorship, Thailand transitioned to a military-dominated, semi-elected government in 2019. In 2020, the combination of democratic deterioration and frustrations over the role of the monarchy provoked the country’s largest antigovernment demonstrations in a decade. In response to these youth-led protests, the regime resorted to familiar authoritarian tactics, including arbitrary arrests, intimidation, lèse-majesté charges, and harassment of activists. Freedom of the press is constrained, due process is not guaranteed, and there is impunity for crimes committed against activists.

The reported human rights problems are backed up by:

Amnesty International: “Activists, academics, opposition politicians, and human rights defenders were arrested, detained and prosecuted for peacefully expressing their views on the government and monarchy. The government maintained systematic and arbitrary restrictions on human rights, including by passing a new cybersecurity law. Refugees and asylum-seekers were vulnerable to arrest, detention, deportation, and rendition.” [4];
Human Rights Watch: “The government of Prime Minister Gen. Prayut Chan-ocha, in a second term in office after flawed 2019 elections, has done little to address the repressive legacy of military dictatorship. Authorities frequently suppress and prosecute critics of the monarchy and the government. Covid-19 measures have become a pretext for censorship and restriction on peaceful rallies. Rights defenders face constant risk, harassment, and retaliatory lawsuits from government agencies and private companies. In the southern border provinces, government security forces and insurgents commit abuses in ongoing armed conflicts. More than three million migrant workers from neighbouring countries face systematic abuses and exploitation despite government promises for reform. Refugees and asylum seekers endure arrest, prolonged detention, and deportation to persecution in their home countries.” [5]; and
the International Crisis Group: “Thailand’s junta has relinquished military rule in favour of pseudo-democracy in which a pro-military party governs with a narrow parliamentary majority. There are no obvious near-term triggers for political turmoil in Thailand, but the country’s fundamental political and social divisions have not been bridged, and there is potential for future conflict. In the deep south, the Malay-Muslim separatist insurgency continues, while the dialogue process appears moribund. Crisis Group aims to reduce the risk of escalation in the south and limit medium-term threats to political stability by supporting strengthened democratic institutions and promoting substantive peace talks.” [6].

Since 2020, a protest movement, largely youth, has been growing. From Wikipedia [7]:

Causes:

o Dissolution of the pro-democracy Future Forward Party

o Political corruption scandals, including 1MDB

o Distrust in the 2019 general election and the current political system, competitive authoritarianism and illiberal democracy

o Legal inequality and human rights abuses

o LGBT discrimination, gender inequality, and patriarchy

o Economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic and government response

o Increasing royal prerogative and lèse majesté law

o Internet censorship

Goals

o Dissolution of the House and fresh legislative elections

o Ending intimidation of the people

o Drafting a new constitution

o Abolition of the military-appointed Senate

o Amendment of royal prerogative and lèse majesté law

o Increasing civil, economic and political rights

Methods

Demonstrations, sit-ins, flash protests, online activism, petition, protest art, consumer activism

The response, including declaration of a State of Emergency, has been harsh [8] - in addition to the human rights violations noted above, ACLED [9] has assessed violence in Thailand for 2020 as follows:

Overall, events since 2005, and particularly since 2019, show the problems that occur when people in power decide to try to cling to that power, possibly out of fear of change: resistance will occur, particularly amongst the young - even more so in a nation that has a proud history of independence.

That resistance is likely, in my opinion, to ultimately be successful, so the military need to make a decision - a decision which the military in Burma also face: will they be a military, serving their nation, or will they be a junta (whether overt or covert) bringing death and destruction (apart from anything else, consumer boycotts are not out of the question, and that will restrict international trade) to that which they allegedly care about?

Time, in my opinion, for those militaries to grow up - they have enough issues to face, as does Thailand generally, with the desire for self determination that discrimination has increased in the south, dealing with problems being exported by Burma, statelessness issues, and their likely unwilling involvement in the geopolitical standoff between the USA, China, and India.

Consider this hierarchy of needs for nations: