How does the war in Ukraine end? (2 - 4 min. read)

If the world was a perfectly just place, the war in Ukraine would end with Russian and Russian-backed forces all withdrawing out of Ukrainian territory and paying reparations for the damage done. 

If the world is not a perfectly just place, so that won't happen. 

Although Ukrainian forces have done well against Russian forces, Russia is clearly adapting in eastern Ukraine, and Ukraine's forces are smaller - thus it can't sustain a longer war (see here for a good assessment of such issues), and Putin won't stop until he has a way to save face. 

Thus, I consider much of eastern Ukraine will be lost to Russia. 

I am actually more concerned about southern Ukraine: losing that is a blow to Ukraine's grain-export industry, a major component of its economy, as well as a devastating blow to the global food industry. 

However, just as Putin has invested himself in a win of some sort, Ukraine's President Zelensky appears to have invested himself in nothing less than total victory, and thus I suspect shifting to defence in the east and recovery in the south is something Ukraine won't do. 

The worst of outcomes would be a ceasefire-of-exhaustion at or near current "Lines of Control". That would be a situation favouring Russia in the next round of this conflict.

Ukraine must recover a port, and trading a ceasefire for recovery of access to the Black Sea would give Ukraine a chance to outlast Putin (literally - he has shown signs of wanting to leave power, but is possibly trapped by all the power brokers he is indebted to until he has something impressive enough to justify leaving . . . nevertheless, opposition is growing, and Putin may eventually be forced out of power [the rumours of Putin being ill are, IMO, nonsense - as is the prospect of anything as stupid, immoral and wrong as an assassination] ) while it rebuilds for the next phase of this war - and that would happen whether Ukraine regains all of its sovereign territory or not. If it does recover the territory in the east, separatists would resume the war - or fight a guerilla campaign, much as happened for decades in Northern Ireland, in my opinion.

In the long term, a peace process akin to that used to end the Northern Ireland conflict is needed, but that won't start while war continues, and the war reaching a ceasefire is a Catch 22 type situation: Putin won't stop without some sort of win, and Ukraine doesn't want to stop until it has what it views as total victory (which makes a peace agreement or ceasefire moot).

Zelensky has already acknowledged a political process will be needed, but that was followed by the contradictory insistence on total victory, so I suspect other players are having an influence there. 

There is no easy or good end to this, I fear.