After the US election, ...

... what now?

Well, the US system has - and is very proud of - checks and balances between the three arms of its government (Executive, Judicial, and Legislative). Furthermore, US President Trump is just that - a President, not a King: therefore he has to work within the constraints of the political system he appears to have such problems with. He cannot issue, in a regal manner, a decree to banish or significantly change elections or fundamental aspects such as laws or the constitution (although he can issue some proclamations).

The first problem is, the Legislative branch (or Congress, as our American cousins term it) is also Republican, and is likely to be feeling emboldened - and hawkish. My greatest concern is that the combination of a hawkish, patriotic Congress and a possibly somewhat inept President may lead to disastrous outcomes. I'll get to that in a moment, but it also worth keeping in mind that Presidential appointments to the US Cabinet must be approved by Congress: normally that can be a "bad" inhibition on the Executive, but in this instance, it may be a good thing - it may, for instance, ensure that US President Trump has capable advisors around him - after all, despite what many people think, running a business (whether well or badly) and running a government are very different things.

Despite that, I am concerned that the aforementioned combination of a hawkish, patriotic Congress and a possibly somewhat inept President may lead to disastrous outcomes - such as cutting social welfare to pay for tax cuts, recession or depression (financial, to be clear :) ) - possibly on an global scale,a death toll in Syria and the Yemen in the millions, an emboldened (this post was brought to you by the word "emboldened") Russia annexing eastern Ukraine and possibly the Baltic States (particularly if the USA becomes more isolationist and expects others to do more to defend themselves), and war between the USA and China.

I don't consider the latter prospect likely to happen in the South or East China Sea: I suspect it would more likely happen as a result of clumsiness and hawkishness when trying to protect US intellectual property (IP), which may at least limit the scope of any such war, particularly if US President Trump and Russia's President Putin establish closer relations.

There are other problems:

• the social regressiveness of the Republicans will be to the fore, and minority groups (including women, African-Americans, all ethnic groups, Muslims and other non-mainstream religions) will suffer for it (including more discrimination, murders, rapes and other assaults). Trump may actually try to tone down his message on this, but it will be too little, too late - or will simply alienate his supporters;
• attempts to wind back participation in international treaties will not result in the jobs growth that Trump's supporters are expecting, and this, combined with the limited changes he may be able to realise, may lead to even angrier and more disenchanted people; 
• social tensions will grow, leading to the USA becoming an even nastier place than it is already and, as the US economy collapses, quite possibly massive riots, including in areas that are predominantly white.

On that last point, it has to be said that Democrats voters may lash out in their anger and pain and thus find themselves responsible for violence.

Overall, although the political changes are likely to be bad (or at least disappointing - for instance, if US President Trump does manage to get the minimum wage raised [again, remember that, as I understand it, he cannot issue a decree on this], it won't be significant enough to change people's lives noticeably for the better), it is the deterioration of everyday life and everyday interactions that I fear the greatest effects will be felt - and many of those effects are probably going to be ones that Trump did not intend.

Ultimately, the Trump Presidency may also result in:

• his removal by impeachment (which will be after damage has become nigh irreversible);
• as a result of learning the hard way, some changes for the better (for instance, the conservatives may realise their policies aren't going to work in the future, and there may be a move towards a living wage). 

I'm writing this whilst in a bit of a state of shock, so I don't expect it to be my best work: I hope to be able to look back in a few years and say "I was wrong: it wasn't that bad".