A list of my book reviews can be found at https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2019/09/studying-book-reviews.html.
I first read this book back in the 1980s, and suspect I read a different edition, as I have a vague recall of a specific list of 15 lessons.
I first read this book back in the 1980s, and suspect I read a different edition, as I have a vague recall of a specific list of 15 lessons.
Be that as it may,
the details of the version I now have are:
“The
Guns of August”, by Barbara
W. Tuchman, pub.
Penguin (2014), first pub. Macmillan (1962), ISBN 978-0-241-96822-2 (Amazon)
This book is probably
most famous to me for the claims – which I have come across in several
locations, including, most recently, the film “Thirteen
Days” - John
F Kennedy’s desire that his military personnel involved in the Cuban
missile
crisis
had all read the book, on the grounds that they needed to understand the
warning not to assume that they understood what their opponents were going to
do.
I actually found the
BBC series “37
Days” better at conveying that particular issue than this book.
So
. . . to the book itself, which is set out in three main sections:
·
the planning (and prelude);
·
the outbreak of war; and
·
the initial few weeks of war, up till the Battle
of the Marne.
In this review I will
focus on the first section. Much has been written about the actual fighting,
and a fair bit about the July crisis, but I found this book most useful in
relation to the years prior to war, and I want to precis that.
The book begins with
a powerful illustration of the interconnectedness of the elite that ruled over
Europe: the number of royal families present at the funeral of one of their
own, Edward VII of the United Kingdom (referred to as the King of England
in the book), many of whom were related by blood. (The funeral party
also included significant dignitaries from the USA and Asia.)
Significantly,
Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm II boasted of his familial connection – but the Kaiser
also relished the demise of the person he blamed for a perceived “encirclement”
strategy against Germany – “understandings” with Russia, Japan, and, in
response to concerns at Germany’s naval programme (also affected by the cost
of building Dreadnoughts, which saw an abandonment of the UK’s “two navy”
strategy [1]
, France (which had entered an alliance with Russia in 1892).
Amazingly, Ms Tuchman
reports that German suspicions prevented a German-English entente in 1899. She
also reports that Bismarck, who had been central to the formation of a German
Empire, did not want Germany to be anything other than a land-based power, and
spends some time outlining the character flaw of envy of the Kaiser, and of
Germany more broadly.
France in the 1900s
saw Germany as an aggressive threat, and was also interested in cultivating the
UK – but more for aid on the land, than at sea (“Clemenceau
. . . told Edward that when France needed help, England’s sea power
would not be enough, and reminded him that Napoleon was beaten at Waterloo, not
Trafalgar”). France played a key role in resolving tensions and
mutual contempt to enable the Anglo-Russian Convention.
The Kaiser tried –
with some clumsy patronising attempts at guidance - to circumvent the
Convention with an agreement for mutual aid which the Tsar signed, but “expired”
when his ministers pointed out the conflict with the agreement with France.
Meanwhile, one book “proved”
that interconnectedness meant war was so costly to all concerned that no-one
would start one. One of the disciples of this view was the Chair of the UK’s
commission looking into the military disaster the Second Boer War. A subsequent
German book covered such matters as “The Right to Make War”, “The Duty to Make
War”, and “World Power or Downfall”, arguing for aggression as “a necessity”,
and that one must strike first – whereas the Kaiser wanted to avoid that “odium”.
In the section of
this book discussing the plans being prepared by the various nations, Germany’s
contempt for other nations is apparent in Schlieffen plan – but England’s
interest in Belgium is portrayed as purely a means of forward defence, taking
advantage of an opportunity created by a desire for self-determination (as
it would later be termed) in 1830, and realised by England working to
create a balance of power. Germany, at this time, is still Prussia, and Austria
is still a significant presence. In the 1870 war between France and the new Germany,
England had played mediator, and emphasised importance of Belgian neutrality,
so Germany was aware of the significance of this, and justified their plans as “military
necessity”.
The planning by
Germany did consider military issues, and some novel solutions were adopted –
such as using reserve units in the front line. However, their planning was rigid
(ignoring Clausewitz’s warnings to “leave room for the unexpected”), and
built on a number of assumptions (and the larger size of armies then as
compared to 1870 – which the old Moltke had warned, in 1890, could prolong wars
[the younger ignored similar moments of insight]), and those applied to
Russia were subsequently shown to be flawed (and thus the first notch of the
lesson JFK and so many others have drawn from this tragedy), and the
fighting capabilities of the British army and Belgium were also underestimated.
The effect of modern weapons was underplayed (although some realised the
impact of these – an Austrian developed a proposal for what was later known as
the tank in the 1900s [2]
).
Ms Tuchman writes: “One constant among the elements of 1914 – as of any era –
was the disposition of everyone on all sides not to prepare for the harder
alternative, not to act upon what they suspected to be true.”
The role of German
culture is also highlighted, with a widespread, pervasive sense of destiny in
the context of becoming powerful attributed to a century of philosophical (Fichte,
Hegel, and Nietzsche) and military (von der Goltz) influences. Yet
some aspects were ignored – such as, in addition to matters already discussed,
Bismarck’s warning “it would be against ‘plain
common sense’ to add another enemy to the forces against Germany.” (Bismarck
also warned against occupying Alsace and Lorraine.) Germany thought it
could bribe Belgium’s King Leopold, who was known to be avaricious: this was
not revised when the very different Albert came to the Belgian throne.
France’s planning did
not know of the novel aspects of Germany’s planning, and was also blighted by
arrogant assumptions.
In my opinion, the
events described by this book shows that the desire for respect is as important
for nations as people – Germany was young, but wanted to be like the big
(empire) kids. All were trampling on rights of their imperial “subjects”, but World
War One did even more massive damage to those imperial “subjects”, as to people
elsewhere. The desire for respect becomes a problem when that quest becomes “at
any cost” (i.e., war), or is infected by paranoia, arrogance, or other personal
flaws in key people. German arrogance made the war inevitable; German arrogance
made it inevitable that their planning would be flawed.
France’s equivalent
and near-equal flaw was the blind belief in spirit – élan, which made,
for instance, the rejection of uniforms that didn’t stand out like target
bullseyes, attacks wasteful of humanity, and the bloodiness of Verdun
inevitable. At least they believed in adaptability, but the half of Foch’s
teaching on tactics and other military necessities (also inspired by
Clausewitz) got lost, as did a prescient plan to resist an expected attack
through Belgium . . . At least one visionary arguing for use of
soldiers aged between 25 and 33 and that war would be of mass armies was
ignored, as were intelligence warnings.
While nerves were
stretched over the possibility that Germany would take advantage of Russia’s
loss to Japan in 1905, the British had war-gamed a version of the Schlieffen
plan, indicating to them the importance of their involvement on land. At the
same time, France made overtures to the UK, with the response being predicated
on respect for the neutrality of Belgium – to the extent that a Colonel
exceeded his authority and indicated a breach of that neutrality would lead to
an “automatic” response. A change of the UK’s government at this time resulted
in planning by the two staffs, but on the basis of no commitment by the UK,
independent command in the field, and consideration of the use of the British
navy (including a possible Inchon-style landing behind enemy lines).
The commanders of the
British and French staffs, Wilson and Foch, visited and connected, with Wilson
predicting Foch’s ultimate command of the Allied forces.
There was, however,
no planning for transport, Wilson’s reaction to which eventually led to a plan
based on the British army being the left extension of the French forces (everyone
either knew or assumed the Germans would come through Belgium, but their
strength was underestimated, and the Belgians clung grimly to their neutrality,
refusing to be part of anyone’s planning), after conflicting plans by the
navy were scrapped.
Actually, in 1912 the
British tried to get Germany to agree to a smaller navy, which they would only
consider if the UK agreed to stay out of a war between France and Germany.
Everyone told everyone else to, er, go away. French and British army planning
continued, and was ready in detail, but in secrecy, by spring, 1914.
There was a certain
amount of, if not secrecy, misdirection inside the UK Cabinet. Ms Tuchman
brings this out very clearly – far more so than the BBC’s “37 Days”
miniseries.
With regard to Russia,
the many warnings about that nation’s military shortcomings and inadequacies, including
written reports from British observers, were ignored by the UK and France. In addition,
attempts at reforming governance, some dating back to the freeing
of the serfs in 1861, were mishandled – the decision of Alexander to keep Nicholas
II ignorant of statecraft until he reached the age of 30 was an example made even
more ludicrous by the early death of Alexander III, and thus the ascension of an
ignorant, untrained successor. The outdated faith in the bayonet over the bullet
by Minister for War General Sukhomlinov was just more of the same uncomprehending
disconnection from the march of time. (Ms Tuchman makes an interesting observation
about all armies finding they were short on munitions after war commences. This
was actually a factor
in the fire on the US navy’s aircraft carrier USS Forrestal in 1967. Other sad parallels
around arrogance / overconfidence / underestimating one’s enemy / etc I will address
when I review Robert
McNamara’s mea culpa “In
Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam” [the lessons there also include
deceit, notably by the South Vietnamese in the early 1960s, and ideological blindness
– crucially, just after World War Two).
The second and third sections
of this epic deal with the outbreak of war, and the first month of fighting.
This has, perhaps more
so since Ms Tuchman’s book was first published, been discussed in considerable depth
– and the YouTube channel “The
Great War”, reliving the war 100 years later, week by week, with supplemental
topical examinations, has been particularly insightful.
However, “The Guns
of August” is still a major, respected source on this part of that terrible
war, and these two sections illustrate some key points very clearly. One I’ve noticed
commented on by many others is the military errors – communication problems, arrogance,
and ideological inflexibility, for instance; political ineptness is another, as
is the disconnect between war plans and political aims and objectives (another
matter in which Clausewitz would not have been happy).
However, what stands out
for me is how close the Germans actually came to success on the Western Front. Wellington
commented
on how close the Battle
of Waterloo was (it was “the nearest run thing you ever saw in your
life.”). As Ms Tuchman writes:
“So close had the Germans come to victory, so near the
French to disaster, so great, in the preceding days, had been the astonished
dismay of the world as it watched the relentless advance of the Germans and the
retreat of the Allies on Paris, that the battle that turned the tide came to be
known as the Miracle of the Marne.”
(I’m also aware of
how many times the world almost didn’t go to war then – for instance, if Rasputin
hadn’t been in hospital after an assassination attempt, could he have talked the
Tsar out of war as he had in 1912? If any one of the farcical sequence of misfortunate
events had not happened, Archduke Ferdinand would not have been assassinated, and
a pretext could possibly have been avoided for two critical years. One of the books
I will eventually review is Richard Ned Lebow’s “Archduke Franz Ferdinand
Lives!: A World without World War I”, an alternative history based on World War
One not happening, which looks at both the best and the worst of what could have
eventuated. My copy is a hard cover, but Amazon have an e-book version here.)
The lessons
are summarised at Wikipedia as:
·
too much faith in the power of free trade – I agree
with this: free trade can help, the cultural contacts that go with it even more
so, but it is not a block against war, nor should it ever be used to excuse or acquiescence
in breaches of principle, such as human rights abuses;
·
a ludicrous (my word) belief that war would
be quick – Lord Kitchener was noted as being one of the few who insisted on planning
for years from the start, but there were a few other visionaries as well;
·
an unbalanced approach to warfare based on offensive
and morale – I agree (a mistake the footy team I barrack for also needs to learn
to avoid);
·
failure to consider political backlash – which I
also agree with; and
·
outdated “wartime etiquette” – which I disagree with,
given the Hague
Conventions of 1899 and 1907. Germany should have recognised that life had changed,
and old expectations were outmoded – which also means I support the push for war
crimes trials after the war. I’ll come back to “moral” aspects shortly.
One of the other lessons
illustrated by this book is the danger of working towards a balance of power – a
balance of power can potentially work, as George
F. Kennan has advocated in “American
Diplomacy”, but, it seems to me that although working towards a balance
of power can potentially work in terms of preventing war (although it
cannot achieve peace), it is subject to the effect of changes (such as
new nations, major changes in technology [gunpowder, artillery, machine guns, railways
and better transport, the Dreadnought, planes, nuclear weapons, space, the Internet,
etc]) and sometimes, in my opinion, is questionable morally (there was a
cost, including actual lives lost, the psychological damage of stress, and the human
rights damage of ideological addictions, to the Cold War – which
stayed “cold” because of the insanity known as “MAD” – Mutually Assured Destruction).
In the early 1900s, “world
opinion” probably was the way that morals were predominantly realised, which
was arbitrary (depending on public knowledge [limited by inadequacies of the
media and secretiveness of governments] and the vagaries of public perceptions),
changeable (due to the aforementioned vagaries), and unclear, as they
depended on the values of the culture concerned. However, morals are, since 1948,
not arguable or unclear: they have, in my opinion, been made clear by the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights and a series of international treaties – a
sequence that goes back to the Hague Conventions mentioned above.
Before World War One,
Clausewitz and Schlieffen both raised the issue of making the loser pay the
costs of the war – because they lost the war, not for any moral reasons.
Clausewitz also tied this to “the winning of public opinion”: “He knew how material success could gain public opinion;
he forgot how moral failure could lose it, which too can be a hazard of war.”
France cynically planned to avoid violating Belgian neutrality until after
Germany had already done so.
None of those are acceptable
today – which does not mean they won’t happen, only that, if they do, greater efforts
will be made to hide them.
That raises the issue
of internal dishonesty and misdirection, in addition to the concerns I’ve read in
many locations over secret international agreements, whether they were truly “understandings”,
or actual treaties. When I first came across the topic of World War One as a child,
the issue of secret treaties was listed as a major cause: I think the problem of
dishonest goes further, and I am relieved to be living in a world when commitment
to ethics and transparency is becoming fairly widespread in all areas of
life.
How we handle whistleblowers
is the backlash to this, and one of the tests of our moral commitment.
Finally, the other lessons
I wish to comment on is: how can we recognise those who are being insightful? How
can we recognise and admit when a cherished ideology is either not working as
it should, indifferent, or actually harmful? Lord Kitchener and a few others were
going against accepted wisdom, and they were right – as were those advocating for
what we now know as the tank. They were not given enough credence, and learning
how to ensure that such visionaries are identified (separating them from the
deluded is not an easy task, necessarily) is the challenge of learning from
hindsight to make it foresight: Ms Tuchman’s book not only shows the lessons
made apparent by hindsight, but shows that there were some people who had adequate
and appropriate foresight. Not recognising them was, in my opinion, the
ultimate problem.
I’ll leave this at that
for now, although I may come back and edit it in coming days. I’ve run out of steam
for today though, and want to have a very late tea.
PS - the lesson I mentioned earlier in the text should also be highlighted in the summary:
"the desire for respect is as important for nations as people – Germany was young, but wanted to be like the big (empire) kids".
Also, how to manage personality flaws in leaders is an issue being almost parodied by POTUS45. Trying to set up a meritocracy is not the solution, as the definitions are flawed by the faults of whoever sets it up- as is shown by failed attempts to focus on merit as a "solution" to sexism, and the flaws in my home state's professional engineer registration scheme, which is a perfect illustration of the limits of bureaucratic thinking.
No, I consider the best solution we have to address personality flaws in leaders is inclusive (meaning protective and inclusive of minorities, and as participatory as possible) democracy, fed accurate and good information through transparency and a good (no tabloid trash, and effective and active counters to fake news) free media supported by first-rate analyses of the type provided by Ms Tuchman and first-rate education, which goes beyond preparing people to be cogs in the business world.
PS - the lesson I mentioned earlier in the text should also be highlighted in the summary:
"the desire for respect is as important for nations as people – Germany was young, but wanted to be like the big (empire) kids".
Also, how to manage personality flaws in leaders is an issue being almost parodied by POTUS45. Trying to set up a meritocracy is not the solution, as the definitions are flawed by the faults of whoever sets it up- as is shown by failed attempts to focus on merit as a "solution" to sexism, and the flaws in my home state's professional engineer registration scheme, which is a perfect illustration of the limits of bureaucratic thinking.
No, I consider the best solution we have to address personality flaws in leaders is inclusive (meaning protective and inclusive of minorities, and as participatory as possible) democracy, fed accurate and good information through transparency and a good (no tabloid trash, and effective and active counters to fake news) free media supported by first-rate analyses of the type provided by Ms Tuchman and first-rate education, which goes beyond preparing people to be cogs in the business world.
[1] This strategy was to have as many
major naval ships as the next two navies – see https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Naval_Defence_Act_1889&oldid=899370858,
but also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqX8kCnZu7g
and https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/crouching-lion-weary-titan-lessons-world-war-british-grand-strategy/.
The UK’s changed approach to naval supremacy is akin to what the USA is having to consider as China’s naval power grows.
The UK’s changed approach to naval supremacy is akin to what the USA is having to consider as China’s naval power grows.
[2] See
the Netflix episode “Age of Tanks”, Episode 1, and https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tank&oldid=916124692#Conceptions
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