Monday, 30 August 2021

A proposed safe zone in Kabul, Afghanistan

France's President has proposed that the UN create a "safe zone" in Kabul to enable evacuations to continue. 

On the surface, this appears to be a reasonable proposal, and potentially it could work ... but to work it would need a significant military investment, and: 

  • European nations have a history of not providing sufficient military resources and/or cutting and running at the first sign of trouble (e.g., Somalia, Rwanda [where France was such a major problem] and Bosnia); and 
  • This whole situation has occurred because the USA decided to compound it's initial ineptness by cutting and running - you think they're now going to reverse that? Especially after Biden has said the collapse showed the USA was "right" in cutting and running?

Politically, given that the UN has steadfastly refused to move into the 21st Century by enabling online meetings of the General Assembly, this would have to go to the Security Council. That means the vetoes which were agreed to reluctantly back in the late 1940s, as a precondition before the establishment of the Security Council was agreed to, become an issue. 

China and Russia are notorious nay-sayers, but Russia has no love lost with the Taliban, and China favours stability before it boosts its investment in Afghanistan, so it is at least possible that the proposal would be accepted ... but then we have the issue of who would provide military? Certainly not the USA, and certainly not my spineless, unethical nation. 

France might, given their history of active involvement in the Sahel, but that is an involvement France is having second thoughts about as well. 

Overall, this is a dreamland proposal - I suspect genuinely meant, but something said out of frustration at the inability to find a humane solution to in an unacceptable and inhumane situation. 


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