China vs. India

As an initial comment, the CCP is continuing its economic attack - the one sided nature of direct economic actions means it is not a war - on Australia. 

The main commentary I wish to provide, however, is on the Caspian Report's latest video, titled "A tiny Indian archipelago makes China nervous". 

This channel has looked at India and China previously, including their conflict on the India-Tibet border: 

• see here (on recent developments in the border conflict), here (which is of particular relevance to the current video), here, here, and here on one of India's other regional conflicts; 
• here (on China's reliance on having invaded and occupied Tibet, where it is also committing a genocide, to achieve its plans to dominate the region), here on links between China and Pakistan, here on China's 17 border disputes, here on China's Belt and Road Initiative (relevant to this week's video), here, here (on the Chinese mindset), here (catching up with the West) and here (China's own Silicon Valley), here (China's growing influence in Eastern Europe), and here (is China running out of people?); and 
• here for a geopolitical analysis (albeit in 2017) of South Asia, and here for a forecast for a pre-pandemic 2020.
  

(I have also written about China - see here, here, and here.)

This week's offering from this excellent channel is, in a nutshell, about the whys and wherefores of India's militarisation of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands near the Strait of Malacca.

The key points are:

• India has historically focused on a land  army, but this focus is now moving more towards their  navy. India is developing  newer  nuclear armed submarines (which is a backward step for the world as a whole, but one that is largely being driven by China's growing aggressiveness) which are currently expected to be ready early next year. While that is a significant "force multiplier", India is only two thirds of the way to meeting its naval needs;
• Progress has been restricted by limited resources and the other needs of India's roughly 1.3 billion people (see here, here, here, here, here, and here, here, here, and here). To compensate for these restrictions, India is building alliances (especially through "the Quad", which is currently India, Japan, Australia and the USA, and was described by Shirvan as a potential "Asian NATO"), "returning the favour" by increasing India's presence and influence in "China's backyard" (the  South  China  Sea), and - as mentioned - militarising the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The islands will be militarised over the next 10 years, under a unique - for India - combined military command, and, in the meantime, seabed surveillance which will also counters China's submarines;
• The Andaman and Nicobar Islands region are of great importance to the world's modern shipping - including 80% of China's hydrocarbon's imports, which is, from India's point of view, a force multiplier, and from China's point of view, a "troubling" (Shirvan's nice wording - I would put it more strongly) development;
• China's response has included occassional deliberate flare ups of the border dispute in the Himalayas, in an attempt to try to change India's behaviour - however, as Shirvan points out, distraction can only delay, but not stop the planned militarisation of the Andaman Islands;
• Shirvan ends with a timely warning that these actions could backfire in a number of ways, including the creation of an arms race.

Overall, this video continues the excellent production values of the channel, and provides informative insights on the topic of India's strategy around managing China's threats. I thoroughly recommend having a look - especially at the risks which this could lead to.