Why we should care about what is happening in Tigray

I had started this some time ago, and my original concerns - about the conflict possibly spreading - are now somewhat moot, but it is worth briefly considering a few points, though.

Ethiopia is a populous  nation - 110 million people in 2018, 108 million in 2020, 13^th largest in the world - in Africa, only Nigeria, at 214 million, has more people. Economically, Ethiopia ranks at 64^th in the world by GDP, around 5^th in Africa. The GDP per capita, however, is 204^th in the world - the nation is poor, which possibly reflects the lack of freedom over the last almost half century after a military overthrow of the only African nation to mostly maintain its independence against colonialism (there was an occupation by Italy in 1936-41). The nation’s identity may have existed continuously for two millennia - although it embraces a mix of ethnicities.

The nation - a substantial part of which has a reasonable climate, owing to altitude - is predominantly agricultural, and vulnerable to climate change - which is perhaps part of why the hydropower-focused “Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam” is a source of hope in Ethiopia, although despair and fear elsewhere (and inaction).

The dam is a source of multinational tension. Until the current Prime Minister (Abiy) of Ethiopia came to power, there had also been an ongoing conflict between Ethiopia and her northern neighbour, Eritrea. New PM Abiy ended that conflict, for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 - possibly, as with now former US President Obama, a little prematurely.

In Obama’s case, a range of matters led to second thoughts; in Abiy’s case, internal conflicts and perhaps slow political change (Freedom House still rates Ethiopia as “not free”) and now the war with its northern state of Tigray (ironically, involving troops from Eritrea on the side of the Ethiopia) have raised doubts about that award. (Personally, I consider the award to Abiy was merited: people may change, both for the better and for worse, but the way that conflict was ended unilaterally set an example for the entire world that stands for forever - no matter that Abiy may have subsequently blotted his copybook. Obama’s award is, in my opinion, a little different.)

On Ethiopia’s politics and governance, the World Bank data below shows a nation that has made some minor improvements in recent years, but over the last few decades, mostly a fairly static (stagnant?) situation. 

The nation’s independent-mindedness means it is resistant to superpowers (both the USA and China), but is also resistant to mediation and advice.

This is of concern to the resolution of both external problems, notably those with the dam project, and internally - notably with other states.

A nation which prides itself - with fair reason - on independence and is also under pressure, is more likely to be intransigent.

Thus, in addition to the direct suffering of tens of thousands of people, including thousands of deaths and injuries, this conflict is likely to create a more hardline government in Addis Ababa, which makes the risk of conflict both within and without Ethiopia more likely - and the dam project has the potential to be a major source of tension in a volatile part of the world, one which many major powers are already interested in, beyond that which it currently is.

Hence, we should care a great deal about what happens in Tigray.