Ukraine vs. Russia

After a quarter century free of major war, it looks like Europe is about to find itself embroiled in war again, as Russia’s expected invasion of Ukraine becomes (likely) very imminent. I suspect the attack will be a combination of in the east of Ukraine (already underway), and from the north - which is closest to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. The absence of anything much other than infantry in Crimea suggests not much may happen there (except perhaps linking up with the separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine?), but, wherever it happens, the consequences will be devastating - two Ukrainian soldiers have been killed already, and both Ukrainian and Russian militaries have improved since their last conflict in 2014, so this will have fatalities, injuries, and destruction amounting to devastation. 

The last conflict, in 2014, was fairly clearly localised (and reflected, in part, the ethnic tensions Stalin had deliberately created to help him rule), as was the fighting a few years ago in Nagorno-Karabakh (also a deliberately divisive creation of Stalin). The level of international interest suggests very strongly that this conflict will be different.

I’m not referring to this as as “maybe a conflict”. The major factor for my choice of words there is that Putin would need a way to avoid losing face, and he has - apart from Russia’s genuinely held concerns about being vulnerable to attack through Ukraine and Poland - and the West has invaded Russia/the USSR from the north, during the Russian civil war in 1918-21) - invested too much to just call the war off. (I’ve read a suggestion he has been looking for a time that would surprise the West, but I consider that highly unlikely of being found now, with the intense international scrutiny - unless China does something spectacularly stupid, perhaps as part of or just over the olympic closing ceremony). 

Attempts at diplomacy have been an almost robotic “going through the motions” mundanity so far, and thus I hold little hope of that working (see also here and here, for some of my past thoughts that may be relevant). At least diplomatic efforts exist. The call by the Ukrainian President for details of threatened sanctions to be made public could help, but Putin needs a way to save face - and he appears to be prepared to lose other people’s lives - or see them left crippled and in desperate, lifelong pain -  if necessary to do so. 

I’m currently reading Robert  Harris‘ Cicero trilogy, and am staggered at what people will do when they put the quest for personal power. Cicero was well motivated for some of the actions he undertook - including having five Roman citizens executed without a trial, but taking life ALWAYS denigrates the sanctity of life, and, in that historical case, undermined his attempts to prevent the Roman republic becoming a dictatorship. 

Coming back to the present day, one set of people who are well motivated to avoid unnecessary wars is those who have been in wars. 

I wonder what they would think of the current conflict in eastern, soon likely to be all of, Ukraine? Reasonable? Justifiable? Or an ego driven grab for power and “a legacy” . . .