On the alleged "fragility" of democracy

Many people tend to think of the world from their point of view. As an example, bigots sometimes think that group X has something wrong with them, until they actually meet someone from group X, and realise that their bigotry is wrong. That person often then arrogantly assumes that the problem is solved, not realising that many other people likely share that bigotry, and the victim of their hate (whether conscious or not, it is hate - and bigotry is not too strong a word) has likely experienced it from others, so they will have a weary, seen-it-all-before contempt to the reformed bigot who thinks the reformed bigot deserves a medal. 

This sort of bias also applies to people who think "good things" - for example, I've heard people claim certain groups are less likely to be bigots: often that is referring to uni graduates, but there is evidence that uni graduates are just better at hiding their bigotry. Such people may also downplay problems - for instance, amongst blue collar workers - on the basis of a few individuals who are actually bucking the trend (and keep in mind I spent quite a few years living with a partner who was blue collar in The  Pines [which is NOT all of North Frankston], so I've seen the best and worst of blue collar workers and uni graduates - and the blindly optimistic, who I consider to be the worst of all). 

These examples are illustrative of confirmation  bias and the "social  bubble" effect (and the concept and reality extends beyond and pre-dates the terms use for the Internet) - and that there are trends in groups which can be measured, and which may be indicative of things like culture. 

When people in the west refer to "democracy", they're actually, whether they realise it or not, referring to a centuries long struggle against Western monarchical systems. Yes, I'm aware that there are many references back to Ancient Greece's version of democracy (which originally came from further east, from memory), but what we have here is built around the starting point of needing to protect people lacking political power from those elites who do have money, social "prestige", and political influence. 

We have acquired other aspects along the way, and the "old money" and newly elite have got better about hiding their influence and power, but we still have a centuries long tradition - or trend - of trying to get power to be more uniformly available. 

To some extent, a horribly twisted version of that, built on a series of utterly disgusting lies, was behind the attempt to steal power from the majority of people in the USA on 6th January this year.

The response has shown how much people care about true democracy. 

Similarly, here in Australia, there has been growing criticism of our national neoliberal government, as their shortcomings are made ever more clear by the media.

True, the shortcomings were always there for people to see, but the right wing media hid those at the last election, and there were scare campaigns built on utter falsehoods. 

And now people are starting to object more strenuously to threats to our democracy.

The threats are real, no mistake about that, but the responses are also real, and are being aided by our growing understanding of how to monitor, measure  and  assess  democracy. 

There are some people who feel more secure under authoritarian scenarios, but those forms of government are rigid and inflexible, and thus unable to adapt adequately in the long term, and eventually the majority of people will want their freedom back again. 

There is an old joke, from the time of the fall of the USSR, that "communism is the longest and most difficult path from capitalism to capitalism". That is obviously focused on economic matters, but similar comments can be made about authoritarian regimes: there may be enough of an attraction for some people that they can seize and hold power, but their shortcomings - including the necessarily brutal exercise of power (including the appallingly brutal, coercive and invasive mind control of the CCP) - will eventually remind people of the benefits of freedom. 

After that, it is a matter of arguing about the form of freedom, and how to get there. 

Other nations may not have the same cultural tradition of freedom - and I'm including former colonies in that, as their governance was about suppression, not encouraging freedom. The desire for freedom in such nations is, in my experience, stronger than in nations which have not tasted it yet - particularly in Uganda, where the courage of young people during the last election was awe-inspiring.

In those nations, establishing democracy is not only about winning an election, it is about people debating and choosing the details they consider best suits the cultures of their nation, and then establishing an overall culture of democratic traditions for at least three generations. 

Backsliding can occur, as illustrated by Russia under Putin, which reflects to some extent the externally imposed pace & nature of change and the arbitrarily assigned end point.

But everywhere, democracy is the best expression we currently have of the innate human desire for dignity and freedom: to say that democracy is fragile is to mistakes the expression or form of realisation of that desire for the desire itself. 

Let's keep working to help the best of the human spirit.

On Uganda, Burma, the attempted coup in the USA, and from the news

On Uganda this week:

• in a major blow to the judiciary's credibility, Bobi Win has withdrawn his challenge to the election result; 
• debate on the controversial (and, IMO, unnecessary, anti-democratic and counter-productive) measure to extend Parliamentary terms continues; 
• the results of an integrity survey show police have least trust; 
• an interview with the IGAD  Executive Secretary covered the Kenya-Somalia war, Uganda's election and the desert locust infestation.

On Burma this week:

• an updated review of the Stage 9 genocide of the Rohingya;
  
• the protests, heavy handed responses and killings, funerals - and a strike - continue; 
• an examination of the leaderless nature and humour of the protests;
  
• facebook has shut down the Burmese military's page; 
• an assessment of the risk of divisions within the more than 400,000 members of the security forces - including that divisions would increase if the army used lethal force;  
• violent thugs are acting on behalf of the military;
  
• sanctions are being implemented or considered by the EU, the G7, and calls are being made for action by this company;
  
• Indonesia is attempting to mediate the situation.

On the attempted coup in the USA:

• a review of the US republican party's plans to hold on to power, despite becoming a minority party; 
• the cult-like behaviour of conspiracy fantasists (who are also targetting the wellness movement);
  
• retired police officers have revealed the incompetence in security leadership in the lead up to the attempted coup in the USA on 6th Jan;
  
• insurrectionists still want to blow up the Capitol building.
  

From the news this week:

• an article pointing out that, for climate change and other reasons, a "return to pre-COVID normal" would be a disaster for the world - and the same applies for Australia with regard to our economy; (the fact that productivity grew under the Hawke-Keating government but not the neoliberal nitwits since is very interesting). Also, UN peacekeeping MUST consider the impacts of the climate crisis. On our economy:
  
• staggering revelations that a job scheme proposed by the anti-worker national neolib nitwits could result in experienced workers being replaced by multiple inexperienced juniors and the cost difference made up by the scheme;
• nations with higher unemployment benefits have LOWER unemployment rates, as a powerful call is made by a respected expert for Australia to ditch years of suppressing wages & inflation in favour of a goal of full employment (if the neolibs are genuine about the dole just being for a transition, given the clear failure of that and today's evidence, how about at the very least making the dole time-dependent? Increase it the longer you're on it - no-one WANTS to be on it, and it's only IPOCs who think that. Maybe also link it to the CPI . . . );
  

• Genocide Watch has published articles on: the history (back to 1534) of genocide in Guatemala; the endemic violence in El Salvador (see here for an overview of the current election and situation in that nation); an overview of the ignored crisis in the Central African Republic; more details of China's genocide of the Uyghurs; cultural arrogance & enforced hegemony leading to suppression of academic freedom & Islamophobia in  France; a call for the ICC to include recent extrajudicial killings in its investigation of atrocities in Venezuela; 
• recommendations for a better US policy in West Asia; 
  
• publication of a US intelligence report identifying the Saudi crown prince as the person who approved the murder of journalist Jamal Kashoggi, and "will ban entry of foreigners who threaten dissidents and will immediately restrict 76 Saudis";  
• the Philippines has admitted its police murdered thousands of alleged drug criminals, many of whom were falsely accused; 
  
• China is expanding its missile system;
  
• exiles outside Venezuela have become a significant factor in the world's perception of and attitudes to/interactions with Venezuela (much as with Cuba since the 1950s); 
• India is trying to censor social media; 
• "at least 83 governments worldwide have used the Covid-19 pandemic to justify violating the exercise of free speech and peaceful assembly";
  
• a guide to avoiding conflict gold; and the risk of the a famine in Yemen becoming the worst the world has seen in decades;
  
• recommendations for implementing Sudan's peace agreement of last year; 
• the political crisis since Armenia lost it's ill judged war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh last year is continuing and growing;
  
• "Political leaders must discard rusted-on ideologies and embrace compassion"; 
• the need to support independence for Chagos; 
  
• "malicious software developed by governments can boomerang against their creators";  
• "AI facial analysis is scientifically questionable. Should we be using it for border control?" (I say "no");
• an examination of power in the workplace and how to manage it - including the personality changes (e.g., the "no arseholes rule");
  
• a critique of the Australian government's response to the competition and consumer watchdog's report on the media shows sleepy regulators and uninformed (they thought Internet meant email ... ) national neolib nitwits chose to focus on one small aspect of the recommendations that benefits large established organisations, and resulting in increased power to monopolies like facebook.
  And on that, a cautionary admonishment that Sky News may do a Fox News on us . . . ; 
• in a powerful indictment of the patriarchal  culture of politics (which includes a backlash that has claimed the job of the first complainant, and a warning the ALP also has a problem), an alleged rapist/sexual assaulter now has complaints of four rapes/sexual assaults - and HUNDREDS of female students have reported sexual assaults by private school boys that feed into conservative politics . . . experts have called for an independent review.
  And, following a caution from the police to Parliament that reports must be forwarded, an allegation of a past rape against a current Minister has been forwarded for investigation; 
• "Right-wing extremist groups are drawing in new members from wellness and anti-vaxxer communities online, using the COVID pandemic and outrage over state border closures as a “recruiting tool” to swell their ranks";
  
• in an indication of the depths of white supremacism in Australia, a memorial to an Indigenous woman has been defaced, while in the USA, an admission that the murder of Malcolm X may have been arranged by the New Work Police Department and the US FBI; 
• a new "rights and freedom" media series;
• achieving a true and lasting peace is a process - it is far more than just a ceasefire and possibly laying down weapons. Divisions must be healed, and the causes of the conflict and the harm done in prosecuting the conflict must be addressed. How they are addressed is up to those involved in the process - for instance, South Africa chose Truth and Reconciliation Commissions. In my opinion, those in power tend to favour the options that are easiest / most favourable to them, but those who did the most suffering (often civilians) tend to favour some form of justice - and justice gives the next batch of would be abusers / torturers / murderers / despots pause.
  Infamously, hitler said "Who remembers the Armenians?", referring to the Armenian  genocide (that led to the word genocide) when planning the  Holocaust. If effective action had been taken on the earlier genocide, maybe the latter would not have happened.
  Colombia has been undergoing a comprehensive, but not perfect, attempt at peace after fifty years of internal conflict (and still ongoing drug problems).
  I have a recollection of reading an article about the extent of atrocities committed by FARC (one of the rebel groups), although I cannot find that link now (note the attacks on FARC members in the above link - that suggests the anger of their victims may not have been adequately addressed as yet): it is, however, very encouraging the government side is not being excluded from this process either, with a report that they were responsible fro 6,400 murders (aka "extrajudicial killings" ... ).
  Now for the next step in this process . . .
• an interesting video on how my local Parliament handles video records and programmes, and their latest Auslan bulletin.
  

An update on the registration of engineers

I started this post quite some time ago, but was waylaid by life - fortunately, as it turned out.

I wrote to my local Member of (state) Parliament (technically my Member of the Legislative Assembly, or MLA) on this; they forwarded my email to the relevant Minister, who has now replied, and: 

• probity (basically, police) checks will now be limited to current name; 
• staff doing the assessment will be given LGBTIQ training; and 
• the process will be online.
  

This addresses my previous concerns - to the extent that I now consider it realistic for me to consider planning for a retirement. 

Of course, no doubt many others contributed to this, but it does give me encouragement for the potential benefit of  making the effort to lobby. 

For interest, the sort of matters I raised (or considered raising) included: 

• work experience of being misgendered and deadnamed; 
• police checks - as such - require listing of all former names (i.e., deadnaming); 
• at least two other other organisations who perform police checks have people I know (from direct personal experience) to be transphobic; 
  
• previous comments to me on this matter had a transphobic tone along the lines of those bigots who make false claims along the lines of M2F TGD people going through the hell of transition (including hormone therapy that causes infertility and sexual dysfunction) to get in women’s toilets - which is ignorant,illogical, and ignores F2Msand non-binary people; 
• potential privacy concerns; 
• lack of awareness including stupid assumptions about M2F voices changing after gender alignment surgery.
  

I’ve written on this and related matters previously. See:

• https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2020/07/thoughts.html;
• https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2020/04/more-on-engineering.html;
• https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2020/02/some-of-ways-that-tgd-people-get-thrown.html;
• https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2020/01/shirking-and-stuffing-up-legislative.html;
• https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-dualism-of-profession-of-engineering.html;
• https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2019/09/changing-jobs-careers.html;
• https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2019/08/backward-step-for-engineering.html.

Sloppy thinking

One of the news articles I've read this morning is on meat consumption, or carnism, and how many people have decoupled the sanitised presentation on supermarket shelves from what is involved in getting it there. My adoptive mother grew up on a cattle property, so she knew - and hated the killing; a very few people I have known have raised an animal, almost as a pet, before killing it for consumption - they knew (and several of the kids turned off eating meat as a result); I've always, including as a kid, seen fish struggling at the end of a line when they're caught, gasping for air and in pain, and thought "How can people not see that pain?" 

There's a lack of empathy, or a lack of observation, in all that that is concerning. 

As an example of another meat-related concern, the utterly idiotic claim I grew up with that "the flavour of the meat is all in the fat". 

Crap.

I've eaten meat with the fat trimmed off it, or with the fat rendered out of it, and bits of fat when - as a kid - others were raving about the fat, and the experience (a) nearly made me throw up, (b) confirmed that meat flavour does not reside in fat, and (c) showed those making such claims to be idiots. 

What they meant to say was that, in their opinion (not others), the flavour of the meat or the experience of being carnist was enhanced by the fat, but they went to an inaccurate extremist presentation: "the flavour of the meat is all in the fat".

This a problem for several reasons: 

1. It perpetuates the climate damaging, ethically questionable practice of consuming meat; and 
2. It gets people into a habit of mindless compliance with social conventions, rather than clear thinking and communication.
   

That latter point is also important: this is where, for instance, people get into the habit of saying "we are inclusive/acting on the climate/something else that is meant to sound good or mollify critics" rather than determining the true situation (which may be along the lines of "we are inclusive for that difference we have personal experience of or can tolerate or don't need to grow as humans in order to accommodate but keep X away from us / we're addressing climate change and sustainability issues in head office but our fundamental activities are wrecking the planet / we're doing a spin [marketing] exercise so we can share warm fuzzies in the board room), taking responsibility and acting on the matter. 

Don't like how, for instance, Scott is running the nation (including being disrespectful by being overly familiar with rape victims)? 

To quite an extent, it started when he was a kid, with the sloppy thinking around around the family barbecues.

Some comments about the coup in Burma

As a first point, my understanding is that it is the military, or Tatmadaw as they are known, who are pushing the use of Myanmar. The world agreed to use the word after the sham agreement to what I term a 49% democracy - a situation where the military had a guaranteed 25% of seats in Parliament, guaranteed key Ministerial positions, and had shut Aung San Suu Kyi out of any significant governmental position.

No, the military had fairly good deal in many ways (as opposed to the people of Burma) - so it is surprising (to me - not others) that they have now committed a coup, but they may have been encouraged by what had happened in Thailand a few years earlier: a coup that, despite claims of elections within a year or so, has left the military exercising dictatorial power allegedly on behalf of a monarchy.

Having committed the coup, for now and the foreseeable future (possibly several years given what happened in Thailand - although active, well-organised and effective resistance started immediately in Burma, and that may have a limiting influence on the life of the coup - if there is enough international support), there will be a socially regressive, politically repressive and authoritarian regime in Burma - one that is more hardline than the regime in Thailand, maybe matches or exceeds the increasingly actively repressive regime in Cambodia, and is somewhat aligned in its controlling attitudes with the CCP (although the CCP is far more cyber savvy, and is trying to create a façade of democracy - what John  Keane, in “Enter the Dragon” in Australian Foreign Affairs Journal No. 11 “The March of Autocracy” [Amazon] describes as a “phantom democracy”).

Burma has been bad since the 1960s in the modern era, but in the 1700s it was an aggressively expansionist empire that drove the Rohingya out (and then had the gall to describe them as being from another land when they returned) and was only brought to heel by the even more aggressive and expansionist (and better armed) British Empire.

None of this did the everyday people in that area any good: the absence of active war was more than offset by the repression of everyday people.

More recently, however, including since  World War Two colonised people have been reclaiming - or trying to reclaim - their freedom. In some cases, they’ve been claiming it for the first time.

This is good for them as people, good for their nations, and good for the health and wellbeing of the region their nation is in (modern wars and unrest are costly both in terms of human suffering and financial costs).

Furthermore, a region that is full of stable, free and traditionally or culturally democratic nations is more likely to have a beneficial or at least neutral influence on others.

It won’t always - Europe during the colonisation era and the USA in the 20^th Century, particularly the Cold War, show the harms that can happen - although it could reasonably be argued that the nations concerned, particularly during the colonisation era were not truly democracies. In fact, at times, the USA has not been a very good democracy (e.g., during the McCarthy era, and under trump).

The UK and USA have quite deliberately exported trouble, though, even when they were supposedly democratic - for instance, in Iran throughout the 20^th Century with two  coups (that came back to haunt them since the resulting revolution in 1979 in so many ways - including the Iran-Iraq war and what was done to prop up Saddam Hussein [and what he did thereafter], the existentialist threat against Israel and the hard line mindset that has contributed to, the exporting of instability and insurrection).

Nevertheless, compare that to the devastation exported by fascist Germany and Italy in the 1930s (World War Two: over 70 million dead), by Russia (internal massacres and famines that killed around  7 to 9  million) through the first half of the 20^th century, and now what China (on top of what  it  did the 20^th century) is doing  in  the  21^st  Century.

For much of my life, my view was: if a nation is more strongly troubled than the strength of the democracy in nations about it, trouble may spread - just as if a nation has a strong tradition, culture and history of democracy, that influence may spread.

I now consider the situation far more complex (for instance, see here, here, here, and here), but as flawed example of a strong system spreading, in the late 1910s and the 1920s, Russia’s communist influence touched a flame in the misery and suffering of many nations, and other places set up or tried to set up communist states.

And that was disastrous for many nations, as shown by the rapidity of the fall of communism in 1989, when a series of nations rapidly tried to move towards freer states of being. (Sadly, with a strong tradition and culture of democracy, a significant number of those nations [including Russia, Poland, and Hungary] are now backsliding.)

On the other hand, the suffering caused by World War Two led many nations to demand better, and colonialism was largely reversed - badly, partly because of the Cold War, partly because of white supremacism, and partly incompetence, but there was significant reversal, albeit with the damage caused by colonialism largely left and not compensated for.

However, some of those decolonialised nations, and other nations in South East Asia, are going backwards - including Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, and Bangladesh. The latter is struggling partly because of endemic poverty, and partly because Burma has - again - sent Rohingya fleeing there. IMO, what could happen in Bangladesh depends partly on what sort of influence Burma is having (there is also a hardline nationalism similar, in some ways, to what is happening in India). In fact, there is a potential for what is happening in Burma to have a wider regional influence in my opinion, but I’m going to have to leave that to when I have time to think, research and write that up properly (I started writing it up, but wasn't satisfied with the result). 

PS - this article gets into the sort of insights I was working towards writing about.