A thought on the war in West Asia and Russia

A thought of mine on the war in West Asia from this week’s coming news post:

I’d like to begin with a thought that I haven’t seen in the mainstream media as yet: Israel is fortunate that Russia is so tied down in Ukraine, as Putin would probably relish re-establishing the sort of Cold War ties that the the former USSR, now Russia, had with Egypt and others in West Asia - and, knowing his history of extreme violence in places such as Chechnya, Ukraine, and Syria, would probably push the levels of confrontation and escalation up. I doubt, given what has been seen in Ukraine, that Russia would be a serious threat to Israel - nor that he would seek a direct confrontation with the USA, but diplomatic relations would undoubtedly be harmed and I suspect the defences of Arab nations would be strengthened - and protests in Egypt suggest some citizens of those nations would appreciate that. (This reminds me of one of the risks of China becoming more confrontational over Taiwan: if that is done while the USA is heavily focused elsewhere [such as Ukraine and West Asia], it's purpose may be to add enough distraction for China to invade and occupy the disputed  lands on the Tibet-China border that wars have been fought over in the 1960s and many incidents of violence since.) 

 

PS - it seems that Russia may seek to get involved after all, but as a mediator. See:

“Putin to make rare trip abroad to discuss Israel-Hamas war with UAE and Saudi Arabia”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/05/putin-will-make-rare-trip-abroad-to-discuss-israel-hamas-war-with-uae-and-saudi-arabia   “... the Russian president is making only his fifth trip abroad since the international criminal court issued an arrest warrant for him in March that accused him of responsibility for the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. ... In July he skipped a summit in Pretoria over fears that the South African hosts would feel obliged to attempt his arrest. Neither the UAE nor Saudi Arabia have signed the ICC’s founding treaty, which means they would not have to arrest him.   ...   The crisis represents an opportunity for Russia to re-enter global politics, offering itself as an unlikely champion of multilateral solutions in the Middle East. It has positioned itself as a potential mediator having maintained ties with Israel and H____.”   I consider the role of Russia and Putin in human rights abuses - not only in Ukraine, and on that, see “An inside look at the dangerous, painstaking work of collecting evidence of suspected war crimes in Ukraine”   https://theconversation.com/an-inside-look-at-the-dangerous-painstaking-work-of-collecting-evidence-of-suspected-war-crimes-in-ukraine-214725 - clear, but note some Ukrainians also have a case to answer. Is a cessation to horror in Gaza worth the risk of partially rehabilitating a monster?  

 

Assumptions / basis 

In writing this, I have assumed / started from the following: 

• this blog states quite clearly that it is about political and human rights matters, including lived experience of problems, and thus I will assume readers are reasonable people who have noted the content warning in the post header;

Possible flaws 

Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider:

• there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan  Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”; 
  
• I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.
  

 

If they are of any use of interest, the activism information links from my former news posts are available in this post. 

 

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