Current events in Russia

If I was to sum up events in Russia (for fairly typical news reports, see here (ABC), here (The Guardian), here (NPR), here (Vox)), I would say Russia’s informal military is attacking Russia’s formal military, with a view to getting a change of military leadership. 

Russia’s informal military:

• are widely considered responsible for human rights abuses - see here (ABC), here (OHCHR), here (The Guardian), here (UN), and here (UN); 
• have been sanctioned over their basically willing (at leadership level) involvement in the invasion of Ukraine; 
• have stated that they want a change of military leadership - not that they want to stop the invasion of Ukraine.
  

Their actions: 

• weaken current russian military activity against Ukraine - which is good; 
• confirm that putin is on shaky group; but 
• they don’t indicate that Russia is likely to stop being an oligarchy, nor that the war in Ukraine would end, nor are they confirmation that putin would necessarily lose power.
  

I consider the social media celebrations and welcoming of these events may be a bit premature. 

I certainly hope this leads to a profound easing or even an end to russia military activity/presence in Ukraine, and for a better (freer and more democratic) situation for the Russian people, but I’m not going to assume that these events mean any of that will happen. 

If putin does go (without any foreign nation's influence/intervention), I consider the nuclear risk would likely be massively reduced.

 

PS - it is now all over (TG), as a result of a deal (LM) Belarus arranged. Putin has been weakened (TG), but not removed - which possibly makes him more dangerous as a result of being more desperate. Thus, if anything, the world may be a little more dangerous today with regard to the nuclear risk, but the hold that russia’s informal military held elsewhere (DW) will be weakened (TG), which is good. I think the assessment that this will all help Ukraine is true, but I don’t think it will be significant - or not as significant as some seem to think. 

PPS - I think these comments by Timothy Snyder are probably the best on these events.

 

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