Some thoughts on Putin [Content Warning - discussion on, and links to, impacts of war related violence. Reader discretion is advised]

Note: CONTENT WARNING - some of this content is about upsetting, disturbing or triggering events & attitudes. Seek competent help - including professional - if you need it. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are advised that linked articles may contains names and/or images of deceased people. READER CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED! For anyone distressed by anything in this post, or for any other reason considering seeking support, resources are available in Australia here, here, and here. In other nations, you will have to do an Internet search using terms such as “mental health support - <your nation>” (which, for instance, may lead to this, this, and this, in the USA, or this, this, and this, in France [biased towards English-language - my apologies]), or perhaps try https://www.befrienders.org/.

 

I recently came across this assessment of Putin as stressed and unwell, this opinion that the Putin regime will collapse quickly, and a comment that Putin’s backers are meeting in Moscow. 

I know from some of the books I have read (details to come if I get time and energy) that Putin is incredibly rich and powerful, but also that Putin is in power partly because of hidden backers.

The implication in what I have come across in the last week or so is that Putin is at risk, to which my immediate reaction is that it depends on how much power Putin has accumulated that could be considered separated from the power of his backers, but then I started reading about the Russian casualties from Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine ... 

Setting aside for the moment the Ukrainian military (50-70,000 dead and 100-120,000 injured) and civilian (11-40,000 dead, 20,000 injured and 28,000 captured, and 6 million refugees and 8 million IDPs) casualties, the war crimes (including allegations [confirmed by experts but not yet courts] of genocide), the ecocide, and the devastating world food crisis, the Russian military death toll (see here and here) is at least 70,000, possibly 120-150,000, with a further 200,000 injured - so possibly more than 300,000 casualties. 

For comparison, the disastrous Russian invasion of Afghanistan had 14-26,000 military deaths, and the Second Chechen war had 20 - 40,000 Russian military deaths - and both had civilian and defending military casualties, human rights abuses, and other impacts.

The economic impacts within Russia do not appear to be as severe as I would have expected (see here), and I note the World Bank has commented on the increase in military spending as a factor in GDP. 

That is possibly something Putin’s backers would count in his favour, however recent Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory (including attacks on Moscow) would not.

Overall, I do not have a sense that Putin is at a particular risk of being ousted, but I can’t rule it out either. 

What is perhaps of equal, or possibly greater, importance is what happens after that - which would depend on how Putin is ousted. 

If Putin’s backers remove him, he will be replaced by someone not too dissimilar. That may be used as an excuse to end the invasion of Ukraine - or at least cut it back while peace is explored, but will not help democracy in Russia. 

If there is a military coup, it is likely ending the wars in Ukraine will be sought, but, again, I have doubts that it would help democracy in Russia.

Is there a way that Putin can be removed which both ends the wars and aids democracy in Russia? 

I don’t know (I would expect it to require a non-military coup where key figures in the forces currently oppressing Russia’s democratic opposition have a major change of heart and ignore or even reverse their orders), but the Russian historian-activist interviewed in my second link in this post, Vladimir Kara-Murza - and his wife, Evgenia, seem to think there is, and he has knowledge - particularly inside knowledge - that I do not ... 

 

PS - I have come across the following YouTube video by a Danish military analyst which outlines the time deadline on the Russian war economy as being in either 2025 or 2026, as it is apparently being run as a war economy, but with severe resource limitations. This makes a sudden collapse of the Putin regime more comprehensible to me, as well as the possibility of Ukraine winning being viable. See: 

“Russia's war economy is unsustainable”   https://youtu.be/i7sbS92R4cg     

And also see: 

“The west’s cautious approach seeks to avoid escalation in Ukraine. It may have the opposite effect | Andriy Zagorodnyuk | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/west-ukraine-escalation-vladimir-putin   and   “Zelenskyy appeals to global south to help ‘force Russia into peace’”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/24/zelenskyy-united-nations-security-council   “Ukrainian president accuses Putin of violating UN foundations and says war cannot be ended by talks alone”   and   “To Be or Not to Be”   https://snyder.substack.com/p/to-be-or-not-to-be   “...   For the past two weeks, Ukrainian leaders have tried to persuade American journalists and the Biden administration of how this can come about, tried to convey a simple strategic truth: Russia will make peace only when Putin believes that Russia is losing.  ...   This is realism.  Using the word “negotiations” in any other sense is misleading”     

and 

“Why the U.S. Misjudged Ukraine — The Influence of Russian Imperial Narratives on US Policy”   https://youtu.be/6f7N09kLFD4   Ah, colonialism and imperialism     

but also 

“Vladimir Putin warns west he will consider using nuclear weapons | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/25/vladimir-putin-warns-west-nuclear-weapons   and   “Putin calls for changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, widening net for ‘aggressor’ states”   https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240925-putin-calls-for-changes-to-russia-s-nuclear-doctrine-widening-net-for-aggressor-states   “...   a nuclear power supporting another state’s attack on his country should from now on be considered as participating in the aggression. Although Putin did not specifically say that such a scenario would trigger a Russian nuclear response, the doctrine spells out the conditions for which Russia can launch its nuclear weapons and could have implications for the war in Ukraine”     

 

 

Assumptions / basis 

In writing this, I have assumed / started from the following: 

• this blog states quite clearly that it is about political and human rights matters, including lived experience of problems, and thus I will assume readers are reasonable people who have noted the content warning in the post header;

Possible flaws 

Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider:

• there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan  Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”; 
  
• I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.
  

 

 

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