West Asia: A Brief Update

Just under a week ago I posted     

“War vs peace, and the mass casualty event in Lebanon”   https://politicalmusingsofkayleen.blogspot.com/2024/09/war-vs-peace-and-mass-casualty-event-in.html     

and I would like to provide some brief update comments. 

First the violent conflict has escalated dramatically - but that conflict still excludes ground troops, which I consider hopeful, and Israel’s actions have limited the capabilities of H_______h. **

However, Israel has moved one division that specialises in the sort of urban warfare that was used in Gaza and would be likely used in any ground war in southern Lebanon close to its border with Lebanon, which could be either prudence or preparation. (A reminder: I am basing this on what is publicly available, plus assessments based on what I have seen in my life.)

On the other hand, Iran is still publicly maintaining a cautious public stance, with their new President even referring to having been asked to show restraint, although that was apparently based on expectations of an imminent peace deal that did not eventuate. Nevertheless, as an outsider, their stance is somewhat cause for mild hope.

So right now, overall - despite the intensification of the violence, I consider there has not been a substantial increase in the risk of a ground war between Israel and H_______h, although there definitely has been some increase. 

I also consider there to be a significant likelihood of violence elsewhere * , partly because of Israel’s success in reducing H_______h’s capacity - and the history of conflict between Israel and H , which is well outlined in:

“New military conflict between Israel and H_______h would follow 40 years of shadow war | H_______h | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/23/military-conflict-israel-h_______h-lebanon-shadow-war      

 

 * PS - see   “Iraqi Shiite Militias Pledge Aid to Lebanese H_______h, Target Israel with Cruise Missiles, Drones”   https://www.juancole.com/2024/09/militias-lebanese-h_______h.html      

 ** PPS - see the following, which summarises nicely another aspect I have been thinking of: possible overconfidence regarding air campaigns, a mistake all sides made at times during World War (part) Two and other wars - but something which did not apply in other circumstances, often in the same war. In this case, for instance, the depth of tunnels is an issue - and that has been developed partly in response to thinks such as “smart” munitions:   “Israel escalation based on risky belief it can bomb Hezbollah into a ceasefire”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/24/escalation-suggests-israel-gambling-on-bombing-hezbollah-into-ceasefire     

Here are a few other news links: 

Institute for the Study of War “Iran Update, September 22, 2024”   https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-22-2024      

“Israeli strikes kill 492 in heaviest daily toll in Lebanon since 1975-90 civil war | Lebanon | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/23/israel-lebanon-strikes-evacuation-h_______h   The lower proportion of women and children in the casualties suggests that Israel may be being more successful here in targeting H_______h - although clearly not perfectly so, and I do not know how many of the men were valid targets (and there is no consideration of nonbinary people ... )   Later attacks had higher proportions of women and children, and damage was clearly of civilian homes and infrastructure     

“Iranian president accuses Israel of seeking wider conflict | Iran | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/23/iran-president-masoud-pezeshkian-israel-conflict-us   “On US visit, Masoud Pezeshkian says ‘there is no winner in warfare’ and also says Iran ready to reopen nuclear talks   ...   accused Israel of fanning the flames of war in [West Asia] and said he hoped Iran could avoid being dragged into acting in a way “not worthy” of it”   It should be noted, though, that Iran still largely has a choice in terms of how it responds - or not. Diplomacy is still an option - and being more amenable to that than Israel could be a diplomatic coup for Iran, if they were genuine about that      

“No clear winner if H_______h and Israel escalate to ground war | Lebanon | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/22/no-clear-winner-if-h_______h-and-israel-escalate-to-ground-war     

“The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-H_______h War”   https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/lebanon-israelpalestine-united-states/us-should   “Israel appears to be trying to coerce H_______h to abandon its demand that a ceasefire in Gaza is a prerequisite for quiet in Israel’s north.   ...   The question now is how far Israel intends to press its advantage   ...   Some U.S. officials also suspect that parts of the Israeli leadership would not mind baiting H_______h into making the kind of attacks they have clearly sought to avoid.   ...   With only weeks to go until the U.S. presidential elections, the Biden administration appears intent on preventing such a scenario   ...”   This is a sound assessment - including of the USA’s possible influence      

“Can Israel avoid same pitfalls of past ground offensive in Lebanon? | Lebanon | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/25/can-israel-avoid-same-pitfalls-of-past-ground-offensive-in-lebanon      

“Israel is targeting H_______h commanders like Ali Karaki, but will it work?”   https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240925-israel-is-targeting-h_______h-commanders-like-a__-k_____-but-will-it-work   “... experts are not convinced by Israel’s strategy in a powder keg region   ...   concedes that the elimination of historical commanders with military knowledge and experience does pose a human resource hit for H_______h’s operations, at least for the short term”   The article comments that H_______h has more people and thus can replace the killed leaders more easily than H____ in Gaza     

 

 

Assumptions / basis 

In writing this, I have assumed / started from the following: 

• this blog states quite clearly that it is about political and human rights matters, including lived experience of problems, and thus I will assume readers are reasonable people who have noted the content warning in the post header;

Possible flaws 

Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider:

• there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan  Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”; 
  
• I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.
  

 

 

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Remember: we need to be more human being rather than human doing, and all misgendering is an act of active transphobia/transmisia that puts trans+ lives at risk & accept that all insistence on the use of “trans” as a descriptor comes with commensurate use of “cis” as a descriptor to prevent “othering”.

Copyright © Kayleen White 2016-2024     NO AI   I do not consent to any machine learning aka Artificial Intelligence (AI), generative AI, large language model, machine learning, chatbot, or other automated analysis, generative process, or replication program to reproduce, mimic, remix, summarise, or otherwise  replicate any part of this post or other posts on this blog via any means. Typo’s may be inserrted deliberately to demonstrate this is not an AI product.     Otherwise, fair and reasonable use is accepted under Creative Commons 4.0 on an Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike basis   https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/